MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 17: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Wednesday! You've found my best MLB bets for June 17. This slate gives us a strikeout under I feel strongly about, and home run picks today in Boston, where the matchup and the weather are both on point. Here are my top MLB picks for all of the action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 17

Brandon Sproat under 4.5 strikeouts at -122 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The right-hander will pitch for the Brewers against the Guardians.

Cleveland is one of the toughest outs in baseball when it comes to strikeouts. They own the third-best strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the American League. They're also top 12 in baseball during the month of June, and so no matter how you slice it — large sample or small — the Guardians have not been striking out against right-handed pitching at all.

Meanwhile, there were high hopes for Sproat in the Milwaukee organization, and things simply have not worked out so far. He's sitting at one win and four losses with a 5.70 ERA. More importantly, he carries just a 21% strikeout rate, which is slightly below league average.

Additionally, hitters flat-out do not chase his pitches — he ranks in just the 7th percentile in chase percentage according to Baseball Savant. Put a disciplined Cleveland lineup against a pitcher who can't generate whiffs, and the under here is a pretty easy look.

Best Bet: Brandon Sproat Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -122

MLB Player Props Today: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 Total Bases

Jarren Duran over 1.5 total bases makes the list of best MLB player props today as the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Boston Red Sox, with Max Scherzer taking the bump for Toronto.

It's safe to say Father Time has caught all the way up to the future Hall of Famer at this point. Things were not great last year against left-handed hitters, and 2026 has been more of the same. Scherzer is allowing a whopping .339 ISO to lefties this season while striking out just 8% of them, compared to 24% of right-handed hitters.

The ball is constantly in play, and left-handed bats are absolutely feasting. Duran is hitting south of .180 in June, but he's reached base in a majority of his most recent games this month while hitting a home run yesterday and over the weekend. There are signs he's starting to heat up.

Duran has shown legitimate pop with 11 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. Against a starter allowing a .339 ISO to lefties and ranking in just the 7th percentile in ground-ball rate and 3rd percentile in barrel rate per Baseball Savant. Duran getting to two total bases feels very much in play.

Best Bet: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, -112

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Home Run Picks Today: Wilyer Abreu

For my MLB home run picks today, we're staying right in Boston. I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but the numbers on Scherzer speak for themselves. He's posting a .272 expected batting average allowed vs. left-handed batters, which ranks in just the 15th percentile per Baseball Savant.

It feels strange to call a future Hall of Famer a vulnerable starting pitcher, but that's exactly what he is right now — and he's especially dangerous to face for left-handed bats.

Wilyer Abreu is coming off a sluggish start to June but has been heating up recently, and the underlying power numbers against right-handed pitching are real — seven home runs and nine doubles against righties this season. Abreu has hit 39 home runs since the start of 2024. He typically doesn't play against left-handed pitchers, so he's done damage in a limited number of at-bats each season.

Temperatures are projected to be in the high 70s in Boston on Wednesday, which means the ball is going to carry. Getting Abreu at +384 against one of the most hittable pitchers in the league in a favorable environment is a dart I'm very comfortable throwing.

Best Bet: Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +384

Good luck on Wednesday. Let's cash some MLB best bets today!