MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 16: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome back to my best MLB bets for June 16! Tuesday's slate gives us home run picks today in Sacramento, and more player props action across the board. Here are my top MLB predictions for Tuesday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 16

Slade Cecconi under 4.5 strikeouts at -145 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Cleveland Guardians take on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cecconi has been a below-average Major League starter this season, and the underlying metrics back that up. His chase rate and whiff rate rank no better than the 26th percentile according to Baseball Savant, which lines up perfectly with his modest 19.3% strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, he draws one of the most brutal matchups in baseball for piling up K's. The Brewers own the third-best strikeout mark against right-handed pitching in June at just 19.2%. That's no fluke, as they have the fifth-stingiest strikeout rate in the league against righties across the entire season. You can get this at -145, and I think the juice is warranted. This is a really strong play.

Best Bet: Slade Cecconi Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -145

MLB Player Props Today: Davis Martin Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Davis Martin over 5.5 strikeouts at -105 is my next MLB player prop pick today.

Martin is an underrated arm in the league. While his expected ERA of 3.80 hints at a bit of negative regression coming, he's been sparkling with a 2.41 ERA and nine wins for the surprising Chicago White Sox, who sit atop the AL Central.

Martin is striking out a tick over 25% of hitters, which is good for the 70th percentile per Baseball Savant. The Sox ace owns an elite 87th percentile chase rate and a well-above-average whiff rate. The Yankees have struggled at times against pitchers with real stuff this season. They're slightly below league average in chase-contact percentage and own the fourth-highest whiff rate in the league.

The catch is that when New York does connect, they do serious damage. But the strikeout upside is there for Martin on Tuesday. Rookie Spencer Jones is getting playing time, and his biggest minor league red flag — strikeouts — has carried over. He's punching out at a 39% clip early on, while Ryan McMahon is striking out 30% of the time. Jazz Chisholm sits at a 27% K rate on the year, so there are some big-time opportunities for strikeouts.

With both clubs coming off a Monday off day, I could see some slow starts at the plate on Tuesday. I'll take Martin to reach six strikeouts at this number.

Best Bet: Davis Martin Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -105

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Home Run Picks Today: Brandon Lowe

Now, for some MLB home run picks today! We're heading back to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, the Athletics' "home" ballpark. After a stretch of games last week in Nevada where the ball was absolutely flying, it's funny to call the Sacramento venue a downgrade. However, it's still an elite hitting environment.

Jack Perkins is the probable starter for the Athletics on Tuesday, and he's surrendered three home runs across his last two starts while failing to work deep into games. The Athletics' bullpen isn't anything to write home about either. The weather in Sacramento is projected to be in the low 90s and sunny on Tuesday, which are perfect conditions for some baseballs to leave the yard.

Enter Brandon Lowe, who is enjoying an All-Star-worthy campaign in his first season with the Pirates. Lowe is sporting a .329 ISO and has already tallied 17 home runs, 13 of which have come against right-handed pitching, with a .485 slugging percentage against righties. Give me Lowe to hit a nuke on Tuesday night in Sacramento.

Best Bet: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run on DraftKings

Good luck Tuesday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!