MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 12: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Welcome back to my best MLB bets for June 12! Friday's slate gives us a pair of strikeout unders, and we'll also target home run picks today in Cincinnati, where the weather and the matchup line up for some very hard contact. Here are my top MLB picks for Friday!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 12
Griffin Canning under 4.5 strikeouts at -121 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the San Diego Padres visit the Baltimore Orioles.
The line isn't enormous, but the case for the under is pretty straightforward. Canning just isn't fooling anybody right now. He ranks in just the 9th percentile in chase percentage according to Baseball Savant, sits exactly at league average in whiff rate, and is giving up hard contact at a clip north of 50%. That's a rough combination for a pitcher trying to pile up strikeouts.
Baltimore is striking out against right-handed pitching at roughly the league average clip since May 1st, sitting around 22%, so the matchup isn't a slam dunk. However, it doesn't need to be when a pitcher is this hittable. It should also be a hot one in Baltimore on Friday, which raises the probability of Canning getting hit hard early and potentially getting the hook before he can rack up volume.
The Orioles had a nice offensive explosion on Thursday against Bryan Woo, and the momentum is on their side. This feels like a bad spot for Canning all around.
Best Bet: Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -121
MLB Player Props Today: Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Let's talk about Nick Lodolo's under 4.5 strikeouts prop at -101 as the Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks at the Great American Ballpark.
Lodolo has had a rough 2026 after dealing with a blister in spring training that pushed back his season start, and the results have reflected it. He's striking out just 17% of hitters and ranks in just the 29th percentile in whiff rate. Now, his chase rate is actually quite strong, which gives him a floor, but that alone isn't going to get him to five strikeouts against this Arizona lineup.
Since May 1st, the Diamondbacks have posted just a 15% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which is about as elite as it gets. That is the toughest matchup in the entire league for southpaws over that stretch. For Lodolo to clear 4.5 strikeouts on Friday, everything would have to break perfectly.
Best Bet: Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -101
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Ketel Marte
Now, for my MLB home run picks today. We're staying right here at the Great American Ballpark, where the conditions and the matchup are both awesome.
Lodolo has surrendered seven home runs in just 88 at-bats to right-handed hitters this season, and those righties are posting a .545 slugging percentage against him. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte is the exact kind of hitter I want to use in this scenario. Marte has four home runs and four doubles in just 72 at-bats vs. left-handed pitching this year, which is good for a .528 slugging percentage.
Marte hit nine home runs against lefties in 159 at-bats with a .516 slugging percentage in 2025. The Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitting environments in baseball. Temperatures should be in the 80s and sunny on Friday, and the ball is going to carry. We can't beat getting Marte to hit a bomb at this number in a nearly perfect matchup.
Best Bet: Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +272
Good luck on Friday! Let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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