MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 11: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Written By Justin Carlucci | Published at June 11, 2026

May 31, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners designated hitter Dominic Canzone (8) is greeted in the dugout on his solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: John Froschauer-Imagn Images

Welcome back to my best MLB bets for June 11! Thursday's slate gives us a strikeout prop in Detroit and home run picks today in Baltimore, where the heat index and the matchup both point in the same direction. Here are my top MLB picks for tonight's action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 11

Zebby Matthews over 4.5 strikeouts at -149 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Minnesota Twins visit the Detroit Tigers.

Matthews has been a bit of a rollercoaster this season, and the underlying numbers are admittedly a tick below where you'd want them. He's sitting slightly under league average in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, according to Baseball Savant. However, the context matters.

Last season, he was well above league average in both whiff rate and chase rate, and I do think there's positive regression coming as the year progresses. More importantly, the matchup is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Since May 1st, Detroit has been punching out against right-handed pitching at roughly the seventh-highest rate in the league. I don't hate sprinkling the 6+ strikeouts at +144 either if you want to chase the plus money.

Best Bet: Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -149

MLB Player Props Today: Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 Total Bases

Dominic Canzone over 1.5 total bases at +154 is another one of my favorite MLB player props today as the Seattle Mariners visit the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

Canzone has been coming into his own in a big way this season, and more consistent playing time has clearly done wonders. It's worth noting he predominantly sees action against right-handed pitching, so there's a pinch-hit risk baked in. However, his production against righties makes this hard to fade.

In 135 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he's posted eight home runs and 12 doubles with a .556 slugging percentage. That's genuine pop. Kyle Bradish gets the ball for Baltimore and profiles as a roughly league-average arm with an expected ERA just north of 4.00.

Bradish is not someone I typically target aggressively, but the environment on Thursday changes everything. Temperatures in Baltimore could flirt with the mid-90s, and Camden Yards in that kind of heat becomes one of the best hitting environments in baseball.

The ball carries, conditions favor hitters, and a guy with Canzone's slugging profile against righties is a prime beneficiary. I also think he's live to go deep, making the total bases number at +154 look like a really attractive spot.

Best Bet: Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, +154

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Home Run Picks Today: Luke Raley

Now, let's get to some home run picks today. We're staying right at Camden Yards, where the heat forecast makes this one of the more interesting power environments on the entire Thursday slate.

Every single one of Raley's 13 home runs this season has come against right-handed pitching in 160 at-bats. He flat-out feasts in these matchups, and with Bradish on the mound and Camden Yards expected to turn into a furnace, the conditions could not be more favorable for a Raley blast.

Bradish profiles as a league-average arm at this stage of the season. He's not a guy who blows hitters away consistently — and when you combine that with upper-90s heat and a lefty bat with legitimate pop, this is the kind of player prop that makes sense to sprinkle. Getting Raley at +424 in this environment is a number I'm comfortable with.

Best Bet: Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +424

Good luck Thursday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!