MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 8: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Welcome back! We've got a loaded midweek slate, and I've got a couple of strikeout props I like, plus a home run pick today in ideal hitting weather. Let's dive into my top MLB picks for Wednesday, July 8!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 8
Michael McGreevy under 3.5 strikeouts at -121 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today, as the Cardinals host the Brewers at Busch Stadium. St. Louis used a bullpen game yesterday, which normally would worry me here because it means McGreevy likely gets a longer leash, but I'm still confident in the under.
McGreevy is arguably the luckiest starting pitcher in baseball. He owns a shiny 3.57 ERA with an expected ERA all the way up at 5.59, which is an absurd discrepancy. The Cards' starter ranks in just the 10th percentile in strikeout rate and the 7th percentile in whiff rate per Baseball Savant. He also has no pitch with a put-away rate higher than 19%, which is flat-out not good.
The Brewers own a top-eight strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but they also rank well above league average in pitches per plate appearance. They'll work counts and run up McGreevy's pitch count rather than pile up whiffs.
Best Bet: Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -121
MLB Player Props Today: Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Next, Shane McClanahan over 5.5 strikeouts at -106 makes my list of best MLB player props today. The Rays host the Yankees at 7:10 p.m. ET, and everything has been ugly for New York. McClanahan sits around a league-average strikeout rate, but his whiff and chase rates are a tick higher, so there could be some positive regression coming. He's not the pitcher he was before his injuries, but I'm not sure it matters today with how putrid the Yankees' offense has been lately.
The Yankees have been impossible to watch, and I'm not sure it will get better soon. After Monday's game, the Yankees set a franchise record by striking out 34 times over a back-to-back game span in what's been a miserable stretch of the summer. In fact, they punched out 17 times in Tuesday's loss to the Rays, an all-time low point.
McClanahan is an average strikeout arm, but this is a genuinely great matchup against a Yankees lineup that's been punching out at an alarming rate. Give me McClanahan to sail over at really nice odds.
Best Bet: Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -106
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Pete Alonso
Now, for my home run pick today! I'm rolling with Pete Alonso to go deep at +330 on DraftKings. I've been fading opposing starter Colin Rea for a long time. He's just not a good pitcher and has minimal swing-and-miss stuff, striking out fewer than 16% of right-handed hitters this season.
Rea's fastball is his favorite pitch, and he's given up big-time power with it against righties. Alonso, meanwhile, continues to mash no matter the uniform, with a .293 expected ISO dating back to the start of last season, and he's one of the premier fastball hitters in baseball. Temperatures should be in the low 80s, so the weather is just fine, and this is a perfectly good spot at great odds for Alonso to launch his 20th home run of the season off Rea.
Best Bet: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +330
Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 8: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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