MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 7: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Welcome back! We're here to break down the best MLB props today for July 7th! There's a huge slate on tap today after a small schedule yesterday. We'll talk home run picks today and much more, so let's dive into my top MLB bets for Tuesday!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 7
Tarik Skubal is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he's one of the biggest names floating around as we inch closer to the MLB trade deadline. The Tigers host the A's at 6:40 p.m. as the southpaw ace takes the mound.
Despite Skubal being one of the best pitchers in baseball, I'm rolling with under 8.5 strikeouts at -129 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Skubal hasn't hit 100 pitches since his return from the IL. I think that could be his maximum leash, but I would not expect more than that, especially since he's rumored to possibly be on the move by the end of the month.
Since the middle of June, the A's have been just about an average strikeout team against left-handed pitching. That's good enough for me to back the under and hope Skubal lands on exactly eight or fewer.
Best Bet: Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -129
MLB Player Props Today: Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Next up on my list of top MLB player props today, I'm on Joey Cantillo over 4.5 strikeouts. The Guardians will square off with the Minnesota Twins at Target Field at 7:30 p.m. ET. Byron Buxton has been one of the best players in baseball this year, but he might not be in the lineup after sustaining an injury against the Yankees a few days ago.
Regardless, as good as Buxton has been, the Twins have been collectively terrible against left-handed pitchers this summer. Since June 1, the Twins have the second-worst wRC+ mark against southpaws in Major League Baseball. That makes me a lot less worried about Cantillo getting shelled and leaving early.
Additionally, the Twins own the 13th-highest strikeout rate vs. lefties since the beginning of June but closed the month striking out at an even higher clip against them. According to Baseball Savant, Cantillo's strikeout rate is just north of the league average, but his whiff rate ranks in the 76th percentile. That should be helpful against the Twins, who already struggle mightily against left-handed hurlers.
Best Bet: Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -150
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! MLB Home Run Picks Today: Max Muncy
Now, my home run picks today! We're going to Dodger Stadium where L.A. will square off against one of the worst pitchers in baseball: Michael Lorenzen. The Rockies' starter has a 6.91 ERA, and all of the under-the-hood metrics suggest that he's really been that bad.
Lorenzen ranks in just the 7th percentile in hard-hit rate, 17th percentile in average exit velocity against him, and gives up an above-average number of barrels via Baseball Savant. He's allowed a whopping .275 ISO to left-handed hitters while his two favorite pitches are his fastball and changeup.
Those are two pitches that Max Muncy has typically feasted on over the past couple of seasons. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Muncy owns ISO rates north of .200 against both of those right-handed offerings.
I'll happily take him to go yard against a terrible pitcher and an atrocious bullpen.
Best Bet: Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run DraftKings
Good luck, and let's cash these MLB best bets!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 7: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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