MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 6: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Happy Monday! We've got a nice slate to kick off the week. I've got a couple of pitching props I like, plus a home run pick today in the D.C. heat. Let's dive into my top MLB picks for July 6!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 6
Noah Cameron over 16.5 pitching outs at -116 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. I've been fading Cameron most of the season, but I'm flipping the script here. His strikeout rate is uninspiring at just a tick over 20%, while his whiff and chase rates sit in the 30th-percentile range per Baseball Savant. However, he's squaring off against a Philly team that's had plenty of issues connecting against lefties.
The Phillies have had a miraculous turnaround under interim manager Don Mattingly. But since the start of June, they're striking out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball against left-handed pitching, and they rank 11th-highest on the season. They also own the third-worst wRC+ in baseball against lefties this year, and since June 1 they rank just 22nd in that department.
The other kicker: the Royals burned four of their better relievers on Sunday, so a lot of their high-leverage arms likely won't be available Monday. They'll want to squeeze extra length out of Cameron.
Best Bet: Noah Cameron Over 16.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -116
MLB Player Props Today: Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 Strikeouts
Next, Cam Schlittler under 6.5 strikeouts at -140 on DraftKings makes my list of best MLB props today. I'll admit, this one feels a little uncomfortable. Schlittler's advanced metrics are excellent under the hood, but his velocity was down a tick in his last start when he got hit around a bit, so I'm raising an eyebrow. More importantly, I've been fading pitchers against Tampa Bay all season, and it's treated me well.
The Rays have the hottest hitter in baseball, Junior Caminero, right in the middle of that order. More importantly, as a team, they simply don't strike out. They own the fourth-best strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since June 1. Additionally, across the full season, they have the best strikeout rate in baseball against righties by a wide margin.
Give me Schlittler to land at six strikeouts or fewer against the Rays on the road.
Best Bet: Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: James Wood
Now, for my MLB home run pick today! I'm rolling with James Wood to go deep at +250, as the Nationals host the Astros. Mike Burrows is scheduled to take the bump for Houston, and he's been pretty underwhelming this season. He's actually been a bit unlucky — his expected ERA is better than the ugly ERA he's sporting. However, he doesn't keep the ball on the ground (27th percentile) and gives up an above-average amount of barrels per Baseball Savant.
Burrows has surrendered 13 home runs to left-handed hitters this year, which is music to my ears with Wood in the box. Wood has a .349 expected ISO against right-handed pitching this season, so he's actually been a touch unlucky with his .285 ISO.
This is a fantastic matchup for Wood. There could be scattered thunderstorms around Washington, but if they get this one in, temperatures should be in the high 80s, and the ball should be flying in the nation's capital.
Best Bet: James Wood to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +250
Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 6: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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