MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 4: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy July 4th! There's a huge holiday slate of baseball, which means we're here to break down the best MLB bets today! I've got a couple of pitching props I like, plus a home run pick today in 100-degree temperatures. Let's dive into my top MLB picks for Saturday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 4

Griffin Canning over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -143 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. There's a little juice on this one, but it's warranted. Canning has been miserable this season, sporting a 7.09 ERA and ranking in just the third percentile in hard-hit rate allowed via Baseball Savant.

He does keep the ball on the ground, but it doesn't mask all of his other shortcomings. The Dodgers have been an absolute juggernaut against right-handed pitching lately. They own the third-highest wRC+ and rank first in on-base percentage against righties in June. They're also striking out at just a 20% clip against righties over that stretch, which is the seventh-best mark in baseball.

Once upon a time, Canning was a serviceable MLB starting pitcher. However, I don't think the Dodgers will have many issues getting to him on Saturday.

Best Bet: Griffin Canning Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed DraftKings, -143

MLB Player Props Today: Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Next, Kumar Rocker over 4.5 strikeouts makes my list of top MLB player props today. While Rocker probably faces some ERA regression this season, he might miss more bats down the stretch. He ranks in just the 35th percentile in strikeout rate per Baseball Savant, but his whiff rate and chase rate are both higher than his actual strikeout rate — an indicator he's been a bit unlucky putting hitters away.

Detroit has had decent offensive success this year, but they've also struck out at a high clip against righties all season. In June, the Tigers posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching, so landing on five strikeouts is a very fair number. This is another prop where I'm totally comfortable paying the juice.

Best Bet: Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -150

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Home Run Picks Today: Brandon Lowe

Now, for my MLB home run picks today! We're targeting Nationals' pitcher Zack Littell, who's projected to take the ball in the 11:05 ET game at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you follow this article series, you know it's easy to pick on Littell — and we should. He's already given up 22 home runs this season. That's absolutely insane, and 16 of them have come against left-handed hitters, who also own a .615 slugging mark against him.

There are plenty of lefty options in this Pirates lineup, including switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds, but I'm rolling with Brandon Lowe to go deep on DraftKings. Lowe has 20 home runs and an All-Star-worthy campaign so far, with 16 of those coming against righties while slugging .553 against them. It's projected to hit 100 degrees in the nation's capital on Saturday with an excessive heat warning in effect, so the baseball should be flying — and it could be tough sledding for Littell.

Best Bet: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!