MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 3: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We’re back with the best MLB bets for July 3rd! I’ve got a pair of pitching props and a home run pick today in what should be a scorcher of a hitting environment. Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 3

Brady Singer under 15.5 pitching outs on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The Reds host the Orioles at Great American Ball Park, and it's going to be hot. Honestly, Singer’s advanced metrics make him look like one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He ranks in just the 8th percentile in expected ERA, the 13th percentile in expected batting average, and the 9th percentile in barrel rate allowed via Baseball Savant.

Pair that with the extreme heat (a high near 95 with an excessive heat warning in Cincinnati on Friday), and the ball should be flying. Great American Ball Park is already one of the best hitting environments in baseball. The Orioles have been underwhelming overall this year, but they are getting healthier and still have talent up and down the lineup. I think Singer runs into trouble early, so give me the short outing.

Best Bet: Brady Singer Under 15.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings

MLB Player Props Today: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Next, Reid Detmers over 6.5 strikeouts at -114 on DraftKings is next up on my list of best MLB props today. The Angels host the Red Sox for a late-night hammer on Friday. This is a really fair number for Detmers. Boston is mostly average at striking out against lefties, so it’s not the easiest draw, but his advanced metrics are far too good for oddsmakers to be hanging just 6.5 strikeouts.

Detmers is running a strikeout rate north of 27%, with his chase rate in the 70th percentile and his whiff rate in the 75th percentile. He’s got awesome stuff, and I think this line should sit at 7.5 minimum regardless of matchup. I’m happy to take an average draw with a fair number and not a ton of juice here.

Best Bet: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -114

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Home Run Picks Today: Gunnar Henderson

Now, for my MLB home run picks today! I’m heading back to Great American Ball Park to pick on Brady Singer, and I’m rolling with Gunnar Henderson to go deep at +340 on DraftKings.

I can’t get over how hot it’s going to be and how much Singer has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. Henderson has 16 home runs on the year, with the bulk of them coming against right-handed pitching. Singer gives up a ton of barrels, and the extreme heat should only cause him more problems in that bandbox.

Henderson is the premier lefty power bat in this Baltimore lineup. I also like Pete Alonso to go yard. Yes, he's a right-handed hitter, but he has some of the best raw power in the league. Singer is getting shelled, and it could be barrels galore in Cinci on Friday.

Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +340

Good luck on Friday! Let’s cash some MLB best bets today!