MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 28: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome back to my best MLB bets for July 28. We’ve got some afternoon baseball and a full Tuesday card, and I’m locked in on two strikeout props plus a home run pick that I really like. Now, let’s dive into my top MLB player props for today’s action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 28

Chase Burns over 5.5 strikeouts at -160 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. I don’t care what the juice is — if you’re hanging a 5.5 line on Burns against anybody, I’m interested.

This guy’s stuff is outrageous. Burns is already one of the five best pitchers in baseball, and the advanced metrics back it up. He owns an 87th‑percentile strikeout rate, a 90th‑percentile whiff rate, and an 82nd‑percentile chase rate per Baseball Savant. It’s not a mirage; he’s missing bats at an elite clip.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is in town, and the Guardians have been fairly stingy in the strikeout department over the full season, but they’ve loosened up lately. Since July 1, the Guardians have the seventh‑highest strikeout rate in baseball against right‑handed pitching.

When you put that trend together with a 5.5 number on Burns, this becomes an auto‑bet for me. Give me the over.

Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -160

MLB Player Props Today: Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Next, I’m heading to Detroit as the Tigers host the Orioles at 6:40 p.m. ET, and I’m rolling with Troy Melton over 5.5 strikeouts at +106 on DraftKings.

Getting plus money on this prop is a treat. Melton has really come into his own this season. Early on, one of my biggest knocks on him was that I didn’t see enough swing‑and‑miss in the profile, even though his expected ERA and other under‑the‑hood pitching indicators were strong. That has changed. As the year has gone on, Melton’s bat‑missing stuff has taken a step forward.

He draws another favorable matchup here. Baltimore is striking out at the fifth‑highest rate in baseball vs. RHP since the beginning of July, so 5.5 becomes a very reachable number. Melton’s outs prop is sitting at 17.5, implying that oddsmakers expect a decent leash and a chance to work deep into this game. That’s exactly what we want when we’re asking for six strikeouts.

All things considered, this is a strong spot for Melton to keep the breakout going. I’ll take the plus money.

Best Bet: Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +106

New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days

Bet Now DraftKings Promo

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $150 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days after issuance. Stake removed from payout. Reward issued as $50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days via click-to-claim for 14 days. 7 days = 168hrs. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 8/23/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

Home Run Picks Today: Riley Greene

Now, for my MLB home run pick today. I’m looking at Riley Greene to hit a home run at +333 on DraftKings. We’re staying in Detroit, where the Tigers get Dean Kremer on the mound for Baltimore.

Kremer has been hammered by left‑handed hitters this season. He’s allowed a massive .351 ISO to lefties, which is about as glaring a red flag as you’ll find. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, gives up a healthy number of barrels, and the power profile against lefties is ugly.

Greene, meanwhile, has come on as the season has gone along. The truly elite top‑of‑the‑leaderboard power numbers aren’t all the way there yet, but he does have 13 home runs against right‑handed pitching and is slugging .517 in that split. This is a plus-matchup on paper: a left‑handed bat with pop against a right‑handed pitcher who gives up loud contact to lefties at a staggering rate.

Kremer has already surrendered seven home runs to just 80 total left‑handed batters faced this season. At +333, I’m willing to bet Greene takes advantage of this spot.

Best Bet: Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +333

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!