MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 24: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Happy Friday! Welcome back to my best MLB bets for July 24. We've got a loaded Friday slate, and I've got two strikeout props and a home run pick today that I really like. Now, let's dive into my top MLB player props for today's action!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 24
Jesus Luzardo over 7.5 strikeouts at +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The Yankees always seem to struggle against pitchers with any inkling of real stuff, and boy, Luzardo has stuff. He's borderline elite in just about every advanced metric per Baseball Savant, pairing a 91st-percentile whiff rate, a 76th-percentile chase rate, and a 92nd-percentile strikeout rate.
Right on cue, here come the Yankees to Citizens Bank Park at 6:45 p.m. ET on Friday. Across the season, the Yankees own the 5th-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 24.8% against left-handed pitching. However, they've been even worse in a smaller July sample, punching out at a massive 32.7% clip against lefties over nearly 150 plate appearances. That's the worst mark in baseball.
They're really hurting without Aaron Judge, and honestly, I don't think even Judge would fix the rest of this lineup's strikeout problems. Give me Luzardo to shove at home at even money.
Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +100
MLB Player Props Today: Grant Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Next, I like Grant Holmes over 4.5 strikeouts at -140 on DraftKings. I think Holmes is due for some positive strikeout regression here. He owns just a 19.5% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 30th percentile. However, his chase rate and whiff rate are both north of 60% — the 60th and 63rd percentile, respectively. That tells me he's been getting unlucky in the strikeout column, and this is a nice, smaller line for him to clear.
The matchup helps too. The Orioles are no strangers to striking out, carrying the 9th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in July. Across the entire season, they've got the 3rd-highest strikeout rate against righties at nearly 24%. His stuff has been better than his numbers indicate, so give me Holmes at Camden Yards in Baltimore on Friday.
Best Bet: Grant Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days Home Run Picks Today: Ketel Marte
Now, for my home run pick today! I'm looking at Ketel Marte at +300 to go deep. The Diamondbacks are visiting the Nationals, so it's nice that Arizona gets that guaranteed ninth-inning at-bat.
Zack Littell is set to work as the bulk reliever because Washington is trying to hide him. Problem is, you can't hide how bad he is, and I'll pick on Littell as long as he's a Major League pitcher. His 5.34 ERA is nothing compared to his 6.45 expected ERA, and he ranks in just the 9th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate allowed.
Littell has also coughed up a whopping 25 home runs this season. Everyone is live to go deep against this Arizona lineup, and this is the best home run matchup on the board.
Marte ranks in the 78th percentile in bat speed, the 70th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 66th percentile in barrel rate, with an expected slugging that's through the roof. I like him to go deep at 3-to-1 on Friday night.
Best Bet: Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +300
Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 24: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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