MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 22: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome back to my best MLB bets for July 22! We've got a ton of afternoon baseball on the schedule, and I've got two strikeout props and a home run pick today that I'm on. Now, let's dive into my top MLB player props for Wednesday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 22

Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts at -140 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. We start in the Bronx, where the Yankees host the Pirates in a doubleheader, and this pick is for the 1:05 p.m. ET game as Cole takes the bump.

Cole has been generally pretty good since returning from injury this season, sitting on a 3.93 ERA backed by a 3.56 expected ERA. But his under-the-hood strikeout numbers are down.

While he's punching out a slightly above-average 24% of batters, his whiff rate ranks in just the 7th percentile and his chase rate in just the 36th percentile per Baseball Savant. When he last pitched a full season in 2024, his numbers weren't great, but they weren't this bad.

That said, the fastball is still humming at 96.8 mph, good for the 85th percentile. Additionally, we've seen him flash at times this year as he's reinvented himself after a handful of injuries over the past few years. There's still some stuff in there — and here's the big kicker: the matchup is a gift.

The Pirates are striking out a ton, owning the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the beginning of July. That also lines up with their numbers since the start of June, so it's no fluke.

Across the full season, they've got the 8th-worst strikeout rate in baseball against righties. They've been bad all year and even worse the last two months. Give me Cole at home.

Best Bet: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140

MLB Player Props Today: Christian Scott Under 5.5 Strikeouts

Next, I'm rolling with Christian Scott under 5.5 strikeouts at -113 on DraftKings as the Mets visit the Brewers at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Scott is a fine young pitcher carrying a 2.87 ERA. However, his advanced stuff suggests some regression is coming, with his expected ERA sitting north of 4.00. He ranks in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate, which is awesome, but his whiff rate is closer to league average, and his chase rate sits in just the 29th percentile.

I'm not saying Scott is going to be bad, but I just don't think he'll be nearly this sharp at missing bats the rest of the way. And Milwaukee is still a tough out at the dish.

The Brewers aren't the stingiest strikeout team in the league anymore, but they're going down on strikes just 21.4% of the time against righties this season, which is the 10th-best mark in baseball. All things considered, this is a tough enough matchup that clearing 5.5 strikeouts is a tall task.

Best Bet: Christian Scott Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -113

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Home Run Picks Today: Tyler Soderstrom

Now, for my home run pick today! We're headed to the desert as the Diamondbacks host the A's at 3:40 p.m. ET, and I'm going with Tyler Soderstrom to go deep.

Merrill Kelly is scheduled to take the bump for Arizona, and I'm willing to say Father Time has caught up to him. Kelly has surrendered 21 home runs this season to go with a 5.20 ERA, and 13 of those bombs have come against left-handed hitters. He ranks in the 1st percentile in barrel rate allowed (yikes), and just the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate. He also doesn't keep the ball on the ground. Things are just not good.

That's where Soderstrom comes in. He's got a little of his mojo back, with 10 home runs against right-handed pitching and a .500 slugging in that split. All of his advanced metrics are well above average. His bat speed, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are all popping off the screen — and he's a candidate for a big bounce-back second half.

This game might not be at tiny Sutter Health Park, but Chase Field is still a very good hitting environment, and with the A's visiting, you get that extra ninth-inning at-bat no matter what.

Best Bet: Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!