MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 21: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome back to my best MLB bets for July 21! We've got a big Tuesday slate on deck, and I've got two strikeout props and a home run pick today that I really like. Now, let's dive into my top MLB player props for Tuesday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 21

Justin Wrobleski under 5.5 strikeouts at -128 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The Phillies host the Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park for a 6:40 p.m. ET National League showdown, and the Dodgers' starter simply isn't missing bats.

He's striking out just 18% of hitters and ranks in the 10th percentile in whiff rate per Baseball Savant. He does own a nice chase rate, but the Phillies are at least league average in that department, so that edge gets neutralized.

It doesn't help that Philadelphia has a couple of strikeout-prone holes in the lineup, like Kyle Schwarber. But Schwarber makes up for it with the kind of damage that forces pitchers to either work around him or leave early.

Meanwhile, Schwarber and Bryce Harper carry decent strikeout rates against lefties, but the Phillies are projected to start five hitters with strikeout rates at 20% or less against left-handed pitching this season.

With Wrobleski's light stuff, some peskier Phillies bats than you'd think, and the heat at a great hitter's ballpark, that's a tough number for him to clear. Give me the under.

Best Bet: Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -128

MLB Player Props Today: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Next, I'm rolling with Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts at -146 on DraftKings. The Tampa Bay Rays travel north of the border to face the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET.

Rasmussen is a fine pitcher with a nice 25% strikeout rate and a chase rate well above league average. But I'm pumping the brakes and siding with the oddsmakers here. They're not silly, and this thing is juiced heavily to the under for a reason.

The Blue Jays lineup has been a lot of things this year, some good and some bad. But they're still elite at not striking out, especially against right-handed pitching. Seven of their projected starters are striking out at a 20% clip or less against righties so far in 2026.

This is also a battle between two of the most disciplined teams in baseball. Per Baseball Savant, the Rays rank first in chase-contact percentage, and the Blue Jays rank second, meaning when these hitters chase, they're still putting wood on the ball.

Rasmussen is a very good arm, but he won't always have the strikeout stuff in tough AL East matchups like this one. It's going to be tough sledding for him on Tuesday.

Best Bet: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -146

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Home Run Picks Today: Hunter Goodman

Now, for my home run picks today! I'm going with Hunter Goodman to go deep on DraftKings. The Colorado Rockies host the Washington Nationals at Coors Field at 8:40 p.m. ET, and Goodman is having a sensational campaign, tearing the cover off the baseball.

On the mound for Washington is Miles Mikolas, who ranks in literally the first percentile in strikeout rate and whiff rate via Baseball Savant. He keeps the ball on the ground at a decent clip, but he also gives up a ton of hard contact and barrels.

Mikolas has surrendered 20 home runs this season, and 12 of them have come against righties, who are also sporting a .536 slugging and a .253 ISO against him. That's not good. And Goodman doesn't shy away from a reverse-splits spot — he owns a .294 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Mikolas throws a lot of sinkers and sliders, and Goodman's under-the-hood metrics against both of those pitches from righties are fantastic.

It might rain, but temperatures are pushing 90 degrees Tuesday, so that ball is going to be absolutely flying at Coors Field. Plus, we get a great park and a bad opposing pitcher. Give me Goodman to hit a home run.

Best Bet: Hunter Goodman to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!