MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 2: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
We’re back with the best MLB bets for July 2nd! I’ve got a pair of strikeout props I like, plus a home run pick today on a guy who should have plenty of lift in the South Philly heat. Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Thursday!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 2
Chase Burns over 6.5 strikeouts at -158 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. He gets a brutal matchup against the Brewers, but I’m still willing to back the sheer arm talent and stuff Burns brings whenever books hang 6.5 strikeouts.
Milwaukee is one of the stingiest teams in baseball when it comes to strikeouts. This is a tough draw, and I usually lean under against them. However, Burns is one of the rare arms I’m willing to switch gears for when the number is this friendly. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 91st percentile in chase rate, the 93rd percentile in whiff rate, and the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate. That gives him real double-digit strikeout upside if his best stuff shows up, and this one sets up as a good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel in Milwaukee.
Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -158
MLB Player Props Today: Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Next, Walbert Urena over 4.5 strikeouts at -119 on DraftKings cracks my list of best MLB props today. Urena has been excellent this season with a 3.14 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 71.2 innings pitched. His strikeout rate sits slightly below league average at 22%, but his whiff rate is all the way up at 69%. That discrepancy leads me to believe there may still be some room for his punchout numbers to climb as he settles in as a starter.
Seattle has some swing-and-miss in the lineup, too. The Mariners are posting the 12th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in June and the fourth-worst mark over the last two weeks. That gives Urena a path to five strikeouts, even at a little juice. Plus, T-Mobile Park is a great venue to pitch in, so hopefully that helps him avoid early trouble.
Best Bet: Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -119
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Bryce Harper
Now, for my MLB home run picks today! I’m going with Bryce Harper to go deep at +331 on Thursday.
Jared Jones is set to take the bump for the Pirates, and he ranks in just the 27th percentile in barrel rate and 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate via Baseball Savant. He’s done a decent job keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s still had some issues with left-handed hitters during his 2026 cup of coffee.
Harper has 17 home runs against right-handed pitching and is slugging .650 against them this season. He's enjoying an All-Star-worthy campaign. The weather angle is the cherry on top. There's going to be excessive heat in South Philadelphia, so the run-scoring environment at Citizens Bank Park could be pretty crazy.
Best Bet: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +331
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 2: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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