MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 18: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

You've found my best MLB bets for July 18! We've got a full Saturday slate now that we're back in the swing of the second half, and I've got two strikeout props and a home run pick today that I really like. Now, let's dive into my top MLB player props for today.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 18

Logan Webb under 5.5 strikeouts at -108 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. Webb is a household name and a historical workhorse. But this season he simply hasn't missed bats like the version we're used to. He owns a 3.96 expected ERA — right around league average — and still does a fantastic job keeping the ball on the ground, but he's striking out just 19.4% of hitters and ranks in the 11th percentile in whiff rate per Baseball Savant.

That's a real outlier year for him in terms of racking up whiffs, and the matchup doesn't scream strikeouts either. Seattle sits in the top third of the league in strikeout rate, which normally isn't ideal for an under — but they could be getting Julio Rodríguez back in the lineup Saturday, which lengthens the group. With Webb not carrying the same put-away stuff as years past, I can see him landing on five, but I don't see much more than that. Give me the under.

Best Bet: Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -108

MLB Player Props Today: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Next, I'm rolling with Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts at -101 on DraftKings. In the past, the Mets have been fairly stingy about striking out. But here's my angle: with a chunk of their roster reportedly on the trade block, morale around that clubhouse has to be sagging. This feels like a tough spot for a team in flux to grind out at-bats.

More importantly, Luzardo's under-the-hood stuff is just too good to fade. He pairs a 91st-percentile strikeout rate with a 92nd-percentile whiff rate and a 78th-percentile chase rate per Baseball Savant.

There are some young, aggressive hitters in this Mets lineup that Luzardo can absolutely take advantage of, and I like him for a big start coming out of the All-Star break.

Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -101

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Home Run Picks Today: Shea Langeliers

Now, for my home run picks today! I'm going with Shea Langeliers to go deep on DraftKings. Another fifth day, another turn for Zack Littell on the mound for the Nationals. If you've followed this series, you know he's treated us awfully well when we've picked on him for home runs. Honestly, I have no idea why Washington keeps running him out there every fifth day.

Littell ranks in just the 8th percentile in barrel rate, the 9th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 15th percentile in ground-ball rate. Additionally, his expected ERA is all the way up at 6.39, which is wild. He's coughed up 23 home runs this season, and 17 of them have come against left-handed batters.

Langeliers, a right-handed hitter, is having an unbelievable season with 21 home runs, 12 of them off right-handed pitching. It'll be in the high 80s in Sacramento, and Sutter Health Park's near-minor-league dimensions are a brutal downgrade for any pitcher.

Littell is in for a rough outing, and Langeliers comes fresh off his All-Star appearance looking to do damage in the heat. Plus, we get a great park and a bad opposing pitcher. Give me Langeliers to hit a home run.

Best Bet: Shea Langeliers to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!