MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 16: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Welcome back to my best MLB bets today for July 16! We're back after a lengthy All-Star break, and the MLB schedule is a little strange. The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, which is the only game on the docket. That means all eyes are on one matchup, so let's dive into a pair of pitching props I really like, plus a home run pick today.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 16
Aaron Nola under 16.5 outs at -125 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. Here's a note that applies to both pitching props: with only one game on the slate and everyone coming off a long layoff, both bullpens are fully rested. Each manager can lean on whichever reliever they want in any leverage spot.
Additionally, Nola likes to give up his fair share of fly balls. In fact, he's carrying one of the highest fly-ball rates of his career in 2026. The forecast doesn't help him either, with temperatures climbing into the mid-to-upper 90s in Philadelphia under an excessive heat warning. The baseball should be flying.
Meanwhile, the Mets have the bats to take advantage of this matchup. Juan Soto is keeping the top of that lineup dangerous, Jorge Polanco is back in the fold, and Francisco Lindor is a big-game hunter in his own right. I see a fresh Mets lineup working Nola's pitch count up and doing some damage, and with a rested Philadelphia bullpen ready behind him, give me the under 16.5.
Best Bet: Aaron Nola Under 16.5 Outs DraftKings, -125
MLB Player Props Today: Christian Scott Under 15.5 Outs
On the flip side, I like Christian Scott under 15.5 outs recorded at -129. The Mets' bullpen is just as well-rested as Philadelphia's, and Scott is a prime regression candidate. You'll see a shiny ERA just north of 3.00 on the surface, but his expected ERA sits all the way up at 4.51 per Baseball Savant.
Scott ranks in just the 7th percentile in ground-ball rate, and that's a scary place to be in this heat. And while he owns an impressive 83rd-percentile strikeout rate, his chase and whiff rates lag well behind that number, which tells me the strikeouts may be tougher to come by as hitters catch up.
I'm buying the negative regression on Scott heading into the second half. There's a lefty-heavy Phillies group of Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryce Harper licking their chops on Thursday. The Mets have a rested bullpen behind him, and Scott is a starter who typically doesn't work deep into games anyway. Give me the under.
Best Bet: Christian Scott Under 15.5 Outs Recorded DraftKings, -129
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Juan Soto
Now, for my home run pick today! I'm rolling with Juan Soto at +217. Soto has absolutely feasted on right-handed pitching this season, hitting .297 with 17 home runs and a slugging percentage north of .600 against righties. Once Nola departs, a shaky Phillies bullpen only sweetens the matchup, and Soto's under-the-hood metrics are downright elite.
Soto ranks in the 99th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. I also love that the Mets are the visiting team, so New York is guaranteed a top-of-the-ninth at-bat.
An extra plate appearance can make a world of difference for a hitting prop. Even with the long layoff and the heat, I expect runs to hit the board.
Best Bet: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +217
Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 16: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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