MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 11: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
You've found my best MLB bets for July 11! We've got a full Saturday slate to dig into, and I've got a strikeout prop, a total bases play, and a home run pick today that I really like. Let's dive into the top MLB picks for all of the action.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 11
Javier Assad under 3.5 strikeouts at +114 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today, as the Chicago Cubs visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds are one of the most strikeout-prone lineups against right-handed pitching in baseball since the start of June, and my similar under play didn't cash with Shota Imanaga yesterday. So, why am I on this under?
Assad might be one of the 10 worst strikeout starters in the sport, sitting at a 14.7% strikeout rate that lands in the 5th percentile, and he ranks in just the 1st percentile in both chase rate and whiff rate per Baseball Savant. He also surrenders a ton of hard contact, so there's a real chance he gets knocked around early and pulled without a long leash to begin with.
Between the low whiff profile and the short hook possibility, there are plenty of paths to the under, and +114 screams value.
Best Bet: Javier Assad Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +114
MLB Player Props Today: Drake Baldwin Over 2+ Total Bases
Next, Drake Baldwin for 2+ total bases at +110 makes my list of best MLB player props today. Matthew Liberatore is on the mound for the Cardinals, and he just isn't a very good starting pitcher right now.
While he's punching out 25% of lefties, he's coughing up a .259 ISO to them, and his 5.49 expected ERA says his rough front-facing numbers are entirely earned. Liberatore gives up a lot of barrels and hard contact and doesn't keep the ball on the ground, so there's not much working in his favor.
When Baldwin has been healthy this season, he's been outstanding — a genuine star. He has a lefty-lefty matchup, and that might be why the price is so nice. However, he's had no issues hitting them, posting an ISO north of .200 against them this year. I'll happily take Baldwin to keep it rolling at +110 on DraftKings.
Best Bet: Drake Baldwin Over 2.5 Total Bases DraftKings, +110
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Ben Rice
Now, for my home run pick today! I'm heading to the nation's capital, where the New York Yankees are in town to face the Washington Nationals. Miles Mikolas is set to take the bump for the home team, and he's worth attacking.
Mikolas is yielding a .196 expected ISO, which is subpar. When you've got a red-hot bat on the other side like Rice, the matchup doesn't have to be perfect.
Rice has been absolutely on fire, boasting a massive .346 ISO against right-handed pitching this season while riding a scorching heater. He's got 7 home runs in his last 10 games and 29 on the year. What a breakout stud.
His advanced metrics are so good across the board they're almost not worth wasting our time going through all of them. And here's the kicker: Washington's bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball. Once Mikolas exits, Rice still has a fantastic matchup regardless of who's on the mound.
He's a top-five hitter in the sport right now, and I'm not sure what the counterargument would even be. Give me Rice on Saturday.
Best Bet: Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run DraftKings
Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!
-
MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 11: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
-
Norway vs. England Odds, Picks & Predictions Quarterfinals, July 11
-
Get 25 Betr Coins on England vs Norway World Cup Match: Use Betr Sportsbook Code LINESWC
-
Texas Medical Association Proposes Higher Prediction Market Age Limit
-
Stake.us Adds Chill Bill to Its Casino Games Portfolio
-
AJ Dybantsa Gets Win Over Darryn Peterson in Summer League Showdown