MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 10: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Friday! We've got a loaded slate to kick off the weekend, and I've got a couple of strikeout props I like, plus a home run pick today in ideal hitting weather. Let's dive into the best MLB bets today for July 10!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 10

Luis Castillo under 4.5 strikeouts at +107 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today, and getting this one at plus money is exactly where I want to be. If you've followed this series, you know Tampa Bay is a brutal draw for strikeout props, and the hottest hitter on the planet, Junior Caminero, sits right in the danger zone of that order as a nice little pot-sweetener.

Castillo is a shell of his former self. He owns a 4.79 ERA, and his expected numbers say there's nothing fluky about the struggles, as he's giving up a lot of hard contact. His strikeout rate sits around 21% and his whiff rate lands in roughly the same percentile per Baseball Savant. He does own a well-above-average chase rate, but it simply hasn't translated into strikeouts this season.

He won't get any bailout from Tampa Bay, either. Per Baseball Savant, the Rays own the 11th-best chase rate in baseball and the highest chase-contact percentage in the league by a wide margin. They rarely chase, and when they do, they put the bat on the ball better than anyone.

That combination neutralizes Castillo's biggest weapon, because he's not missing bats in the zone and the Rays won't help him out of it. Brutal matchup, and I'll take the under 4.5 at plus money all day.

Best Bet: Luis Castillo Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +107

MLB Player Props Today: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Next, Shota Imanaga over 5.5 strikeouts is another one of my best MLB player props today. Imanaga has really put it together after a puzzling start, and while the 4.28 ERA might not scream it, the underlying profile does. He owns an expected ERA of 3.67 and an expected batting average in the 60th percentile, above league average per Baseball Savant.

He's got the swing-and-miss traits to back a strikeout play too. Imanaga pairs an elite 96th-percentile chase rate with an 84th-percentile whiff rate and an above-average 24.1% strikeout rate. I'd argue there's even room for that K rate to climb given how often he's getting hitters to chase and whiff.

The matchup sweetens it. Cincinnati owns the second-worst chase-contact percentage in Major League Baseball, which is huge, because inducing swings is Imanaga's calling card this year.

Since June 1, the Reds have struck out at roughly a league-average clip against left-handers. However, with how often they chase and how good Imanaga is at drawing it, I like this number. The juice is warranted.

Best Bet: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -138

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Home Run Picks Today: Riley Greene

Now, for my home run pick today! I'm rolling with Riley Greene to go deep as the Detroit Tigers host Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies at Comerica Park. I've been happy to target Nola for several years. He's surrendered 11 home runs to lefties in 2026, and those left-handed hitters are slugging north of .500 against him. He's always been a fly-ball pitcher, and this year his 41.5% fly-ball rate is actually the highest mark of his career.

I love Detroit's lefties in this matchup. Greene, meanwhile, is rolling, with two home runs in his last five games, a slugging percentage right around .700 in July. Additionally, he logged a multi-homer game not so long ago on June 30 against the Yankees right before the calendar flipped. He's finding his groove at the perfect time.

The weather is worth a glance, as there could be some thunderstorms in Detroit. But with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s on Friday, conditions should be plenty good to send one of those Nola fly balls over the fence for us.

Best Bet: Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!