MLB Today’s Best Bets for July 1: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back with the best MLB bets for July 1st! I've got a pair of pitching props I love, plus a home run pick today on a guy who's been absolutely unconscious at the dish. Here are my top MLB picks for Wednesday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 1

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts at -147 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. It's going to be brutally hot, but that doesn't change my thoughts on Wheeler. The Phillies' ace has been absolutely tremendous after all the question marks surrounding how he'd respond after rehabbing all offseason.

He's got 74 strikeouts across 75.1 innings and ranks in the 74th percentile in strikeout rate per Baseball Savant, while his chase rate sits all the way up in the 92nd percentile. You really can't ask for much more than that, and I think there are even more strikeouts to squeeze here.

The Phillies and Wheeler draw a really nice matchup against the Pirates at home. Although Pittsburgh has been exciting this season, they're striking out at the fifth-highest rate in baseball against right-handed pitching in June. Give me Wheeler to keep cooking in a plus spot.

Best Bet: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -147

MLB Player Props Today: Michael McGreevy Under 16.5 Outs

Michael McGreevy Under 16.5 Pitching Outs is my next favorite MLB player prop today. McGreevy has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball according to the advanced numbers this season. He's sporting a shiny 3.12 ERA, but his expected ERA has ballooned all the way up to 5.58.

Additionally, he ranks in just the fourth percentile in expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant. He also strikes out next to nobody at a 16.1% clip. The Cards' starter does a nice job keeping the ball on the ground, but it's going to be unbelievably hot at Truist Park in Atlanta. This is a tough matchup when you factor in the negative regression on the way and the extreme heat down south. Give me the under here.

Best Bet: Michael McGreevy Under 16.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -108

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Home Run Picks Today: Yordan Alvarez

Now, for my MLB home run picks today! Give me Yordan Alvarez to go deep at +248 on DraftKings.

Alvarez cranked a grand slam on Tuesday and is up to a whopping 26 home runs this season, with a ridiculous OPS and elite advanced metrics that rank among the game's very best. Taj Bradley is scheduled to be on the bump, and he's a guy who keeps the ball on the ground at just a 10th-percentile rate while ranking in only the 9th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.

Bradley also gives up a double-digit barrel rate, which is bad news for him. When you can get nearly +250 on the game's best power hitter right now — a guy who's been unconscious over the last couple months — in what shapes up as an above-average matchup, you take it and run. Give me Yordan to go deep.

Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +248

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!