MLB Today’s Best Bets for August 7: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Happy Friday! It’s time for my best MLB bets for August 7. I’m attacking tonight’s board with three hitters in favorable matchups, including my favorite home run pick today! Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props for tonight's action.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for August 7
The first total bases prop I’m targeting is Wilyer Abreu at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Athletics head to Fenway Park to face the Red Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET, and Abreu gets an appealing matchup against Jack Perkins.
Perkins can miss bats, so this is not a free square. But when hitters do put the ball in play against him, they have been able to do damage. Accordign to Baseball Savant, he ranks in just the 12th percentile in ground-ball rate allowed, gives up more barrels than the average pitcher, and has already allowed 14 home runs this season.
That’s a dangerous profile against a hitter like Abreu, especially at Fenway. He has homered in three of his past four games, and while we never want to chase short-term results blindly, he is backing up the recent heater with a strong overall profile. Abreu is above average in barrel rate, bat speed, and expected slugging percentage, with 20 home runs on the season.
Hot Boston weather is another little bonus for a hitter who is already rolling.
Best Bet: Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, -112
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days MLB Total Bases Pick: Kyle Stowers
Now, let’s head down to Miami, where the Marlins host the Angels at 7:10 p.m. ET. Kyle Stowers is another total-bases target against George Klassen, who is expected to cover a few innings for Los Angeles.
The early returns on Klassen in the majors have been rough. He has been hit hard in only 4.2 innings, so we shouldn’t overreact to the microscopic sample, but the larger resume doesn’t give me a ton of confidence. He owns a 4.75 ERA across his minor-league career, which isn't great.
The reason Klassen will continue getting looks is obvious: the strikeout upside is there. He has consistently generated plenty of whiffs throughout his career. However, missing bats in the minors and navigating a big-league lineup are two very different things. Now, he draws a left-handed hitter with huge power against righties.
Stowers has hit 15 homers against right-handed pitching in only 262 at-bats this season and has three homers over the last 10 days. His power numbers are no fluke, either. He ranks in the 87th percentile in bat speed and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate.
This is a spot to back Stowers’ ability to impact the baseball. A double in the gap, an extra-base hit, or one mistake sent over the wall can get this total-bases bet home quickly.
Best Bet: Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, +110
MLB Home Run Predictions: Alec Burleson
We’ll finish in St. Louis, as the Cardinals host the Rockies at Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET. Alec Burleson is my favorite home run pick today, and the matchup with Ryan Feltner is one I can’t pass up.
Feltner has been vulnerable to loud contact all season. He has allowed an 11% barrel rate and gives up hard contact at an above-average clip. Coors Field has not been the sole culprit, either. The Rockies right-hander has struggled on the road, bringing a 5.32 ERA away from Denver into Friday’s matchup.
Burleson is an excellent hitter to attack that profile. He has been demolishing the baseball all year, ranking in the 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage, the 75th percentile in barrel rate, and the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Burleson has been locked in, and this is the type of matchup where he can do serious damage.
Best Bet: Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +438
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for August 7: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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