MLB Today’s Best Bets for August 4: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Tuesday! Welcome back to my best MLB bets for August 4. We’ve got a full slate and some juicy matchups, and I’m locked in on one earned-runs prop and a trio of home run picks that I really like. Now, let’s dive into my top MLB player props for today’s action.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for August 4

Patrick Sandoval under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -139 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. I’m not here to sell you on Sandoval as an ace. He’s closer to a middling arm, and his expected ERA sits at 4.40 — nothing special.

But the matchup against the White Sox more than makes up for it.

Chicago has been absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching this summer. Since July 1, the White Sox rank dead last in weighted runs created plus against lefties. They’re 21st in walk rate, which is important here because free passes are often Sandoval’s undoing, and they’re 29th in ISO against left-handed pitchers, meaning there’s almost no power showing up in these splits.

Sandoval does have a few things working in his favor. So far this year, he’s done a solid job suppressing hard contact and barrels. You give a pitcher with that contact profile a lineup that doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit the ball hard against his handedness, and suddenly 2.5 earned runs looks like a fair number to attack.

I still don’t think Sandoval is great. I just think the White Sox are worse.

Best Bet: Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed DraftKings, -139

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Home Run Picks Today: Phillies vs. Zack Littell

Now for my MLB home run picks today. We have a treat every fifth day! Zack Littell continues to take the baseball every fifth day for the Washington Nationals. Why is that? I have no idea.

Littell has been a punching bag for power. According to Baseball Savant, he sits in just the 3rd percentile in expected ERA at 6.13, and he doesn’t crack the 15th percentile in ground-ball rate allowed, hard-hit rate, or barrel rate. He’s already given up 25 home runs this season.

Left-handed hitters are absolutely teeing off against him, slugging .552 with a huge ISO in the split. It’s going to be north of 80 degrees and muggy at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, so the ball should have no problem carrying.

First, I’m rolling with Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at +161 on DraftKings. Schwarber owns a big-time .287 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Littell is giving up a ridiculous .278 ISO to lefties. To his credit, he’s been better against right-handed bats, but he simply cannot keep the ball in the park against left-handed hitters.

Right now, Schwarber is one of the best left-handed power bats in baseball, and this is exactly the kind of matchup we look for.

Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +161

MLB Home Run Predictions: Bryce Harper

Second, I’m going with Bryce Harper to hit a home run at +270 on DraftKings. Harper has an even more monstrous .316 ISO against righties this season. Both Schwarber and Harper have been a little sluggish since the All-Star break, but this is the get-right spot of all get-right spots. They’ve always profiled as strong fastball hitters, and Littell plus the Nationals’ relief corps should give them plenty of hittable pitches.

Cherry on top: the Nationals’ bullpen has been brutal. Washington has surrendered a whopping 78 home runs out of the bullpen so far this year. So when Littell finally leaves, the matchup stays as sweet as ever.

For a longer shot, I don’t mind a crack at Brandon Marsh to go deep at +435. The power isn’t as bankable as Schwarber or Harper, but in this environment, almost every lefty in the Phillies’ lineup has a path to damage.

Best Bet: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +270

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!