MLB Today’s Best Bets for August 15: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Saturday! There are plenty of opportunities across today’s MLB board, and I’ve found two pitcher props and a home run bet today worth targeting. Let’s get into my best MLB picks for August 15.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for August 15

Troy Melton over 5.5 strikeouts at +116 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park, and Melton has quietly become one of the best breakout stories in baseball.

The right-hander enters with a 7-1 record and a 1.46 ERA, but the best part is how much his strikeout profile has improved throughout the season. My knock on Melton earlier in the year was that I did not see enough swing-and-miss upside. That has changed.

Melton now owns a 78th-percentile chase rate, according to Baseball Savant, while his whiff rate sits just above league average. His overall strikeout rate is around league average, but it has climbed substantially from where it was earlier this season.

This is a great matchup for him today. Since the beginning of July, the White Sox own the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching. Chicago has some pop, particularly from the left side, but Melton is trending in the right direction while this offense has been trending the wrong way from a strikeout standpoint.

At plus money, I love Melton to punch out at least six hitters.

Best Bet: Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +116

MLB Player Props Today: Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Next, we’ll head north of the border as the New York Yankees visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Cam Schlittler is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, but I’m fading his strikeout prop in a brutal matchup. I'm taking the Yankees star to go under 6.5 strikeouts today.

This is purely a matchup play. Toronto has been lackluster offensively in plenty of ways this season, but the Blue Jays remain one of baseball’s toughest teams to strike out. Since July 1, Toronto owns the best strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in baseball by a considerable margin.

The Blue Jays rank near the bottom of the league in weighted runs created plus against righties, which is a little surprising. They have not made consistently damaging contact, but they also refuse to punch out. That makes them a difficult opponent for any pitcher trying to hit seven strikeouts.

A majority of Toronto’s projected lineup owns a strikeout rate below 20% against right-handed pitching this season. Schlittler is an elite arm, but this is simply a tough draw.

Best Bet: Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -138

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Home Run Picks Today: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Now for my MLB home run pick today! I’m going with Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run at +318 on DraftKings as the Chicago Cubs host Michael McGreevy and the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field.

Crow-Armstrong has become one of the best players in baseball, and he owns a .279 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He can beat you in a lot of ways, but this is a great spot for the power to show up.

McGreevy has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. He owns a 3.64 ERA, but his expected ERA sits more than two full runs higher. That kind of gap screams regression.

The quality-of-contact metrics are also ugly. McGreevy ranks in just the 12th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant. That is bad news against a hitter with Crow-Armstrong’s power upside.

Look for PCA to chase home run No. 28 at Wrigley Field.

Best Bet: Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +318

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!