MLB Today’s Best Bets for August 13: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Thursday! Welcome back to my best MLB bets for August 13. We’ve got a couple of strikeout props plus a home run pick that I really like, so let’s dive into my top MLB player props for today’s action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for August 13

Parker Messick over 5.5 strikeouts at +108 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The Cleveland Guardians visit the Detroit Tigers for a 1:10 p.m. ET start, and I love getting plus money on a number this attainable.

Messick is having an awesome season, carrying a 2.57 ERA with nine wins. He owns a 60th-percentile strikeout rate, according to Baseball Savant, and his chase rate sits above league average. He is not some elite, bat-missing monster, but the stuff is plenty good enough to get us six strikeouts in the right matchup.

Detroit has been absolutely mashing left-handed pitching in August. No doubt about it. The Tigers lead baseball in weighted runs created plus against southpaws this month by a considerable margin. But they are still striking out at a decent clip, owning the 12th-highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties since July 1.

That rate is roughly two percentage points worse than Detroit’s full-season number, so the Tigers have been swinging a little more freely lately.

The workload is another reason to like this spot. Messick has thrown 100 pitches in multiple games this season, and he just reached 97 pitches while working seven full innings against the White Sox in his last outing. He faced Detroit once in May and struck out six Tigers despite throwing only 81 pitches.

With a long leash, a reasonable number, and plus money attached, I’m rolling with Messick to clear 5.5 strikeouts.

Best Bet: Parker Messick Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +108

MLB Player Props Today: Max Scherzer Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Next, I’m taking Max Scherzer under 4.5 strikeouts at -150 on DraftKings as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at 3:07 p.m. ET.

Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer, and he has strung together a couple of decent starts recently. But let’s be real here: he is a shell of the guy we watched dominate baseball for years. He enters this matchup with an ERA north of 7.00, and his strikeout stuff has fallen off dramatically.

Scherzer’s chase rate remains solid, but hitters are not whiffing against his pitches in the zone. His whiff rate ranks in the third percentile, while his strikeout rate sits in the 13th percentile at less than 17%.

Boston is a brutal opponent for him. The Red Sox own the 10th-best strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since July 1, then improved to the third-best rate in August at roughly 15%. They have cut down on the empty swings while bringing plenty of serious lumber to the plate.

Give me Scherzer under 4.5 strikeouts.

Best Bet: Max Scherzer Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -150

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Home Run Picks Today: Wilyer Abreu

We’re staying in Toronto for my MLB home run pick today. I’m taking Wilyer Abreu to hit a home run at +318 on DraftKings.

Abreu gets a perfect matchup against Scherzer, who has been hammered by left-handed hitters dating back to the beginning of 2025. This season, lefties have slugged .574 against him, with seven home runs in a small sample. Scherzer has also allowed a .266 ISO to left-handed bats.

That is right in Abreu’s wheelhouse. He owns a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, with 21 home runs overall and 16 coming against righties. His advanced metrics are excellent, and he gets to face a pitcher who is giving up barrels at a double-digit rate while ranking in the eighth percentile in barrel rate allowed and 11th percentile in ground-ball rate.

I’ll keep attacking Scherzer. Give me Abreu to go deep.

Best Bet: Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +318

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!