MLB Today’s Best Bets for August 12: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Wednesday! Welcome back to my best MLB bets for August 12. We’ve got a nice slate on deck, and I’m rolling with a pitching-outs under plus two home run picks today that have my attention. Now, let’s dive into my top MLB player props for this jam-packed slate!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for August 12

Foster Griffin under 17.5 pitching outs at +107 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet for Wednesday. The Cleveland Guardians visit the Detroit Tigers at 6:40 p.m. ET, and I’m not totally sure why we’re getting plus money on this number.

Griffin has enjoyed a nice season on the surface. He comes in with a 3.31 ERA and 12 wins, which is nothing to sneeze at. But there are signs he has been pitching a bit over his head. His expected ERA sits at 4.09, much closer to league average, while his strikeout and whiff rates are also more ordinary than his traditional numbers might suggest.

The southpaw does own a solid chase rate and has done well against left-handed hitters, but righties have gotten to him. Griffin has allowed 21 home runs this season, with 15 of those coming against right-handed bats. That is a big problem when you’re walking into Detroit against a Tigers lineup that has been absolutely scorching left-handed pitching.

Detroit leads baseball in weighted runs created plus against southpaws in August, and it has not been particularly close. This lineup is seeing lefties well, and I think the Tigers can get to Griffin early enough to keep him from reaching six full innings.

Best Bet: Foster Griffin Under 17.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, +107

Home Run Picks Today: Kyle Schwarber

Now for my MLB home run picks today. First up, I’m taking Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at +277 on DraftKings as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the St. Louis Cardinals.

Schwarber had been stuck in a post-All-Star break slump, but he broke out in a big way with two home runs against the Blue Jays on Sunday — his first two long balls of August. That little slump is likely why we’re getting such a generous number on one of the game’s premier power hitters.

Kyle Leahy gets the ball for St. Louis, and while he does a good job keeping the ball on the ground, there are still cracks in the profile against left-handed hitters. He has allowed a .162 ISO to lefties, but his expected ISO is up at .219, suggesting he has been a little fortunate in the power department.

Schwarber, meanwhile, owns an ISO north of .300 against right-handed pitching since the beginning of 2025. When we’re pushing toward 3-to-1 odds on a guy with that kind of raw power, especially after he just snapped out of a skid, I’m interested. Give me Schwarber to leave the yard at Busch Stadium.

Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +277

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Home Run Picks Today: Pete Alonso

Finally, I’m going with Pete Alonso to hit a home run at +326 on DraftKings as the Baltimore Orioles visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Zebby Matthews takes the mound for Minnesota, and he has given up a whopping .238 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. The Polar Bear has never been afraid of a reverse-splits spot, owning a .259 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of 2025.

Alonso has been one of the few Orioles hitters consistently moving the needle this season. He ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant. That is elite company across the board.

At +326, I’ll take the Orioles slugger to do some damage against Matthews.

Best Bet: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +326

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!