MLB Today’s Best Bets for 07/23: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

MLB Today’s Best Bets for 07/23: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

It’s a very light five-game slate on the diamond to as two-thirds of the league has their first off-day after the All-Star break Thursday. We have afternoon baseball, starting at 12:15 pm ET when the Padres close a set in Hotlanta against the Braves. The schedule gives plenty of opportunities to find the best MLB bets today, including the top home run props. After looking over the slate, we’ve identified our favorite plays to bolster your bankroll. Without further ado, let’s get to the best options on the board for Thursday, July 23.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for July 23

Michael Harris II, Braves Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, BetMGM)

Harris II continues to rake for the Braves as a solid piece in their lineup. He entered Wednesday hitting .301 with 19 doubles, 18 homers and 59 RBI on the season. Harris II had hits in eight of his last 10 games entering that contest. In addition, he had 21 total bases in that span, going over this prop in five straight contests. Griffin Canning takes the hill for the Padres and he’s been awful, posting a 1-8 mark with a 6.67 ERA over 59.1 innings of work. Meanwhile, Harris II is four of five with a pair of doubles and two RBI against Canning in his career. He’s hitting .289 with seven homers and 30 RBI at home on the year. With Canning struggling, look for Harris II to take advantage and cash this prop.

Gavin Williams, Guardians Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, DraftKings)

Williams, after two rough years to start his career, turned the corner in 2025. He was 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and fanned 172 hitters in 167.2 innings. In addition, he walked a league-high 83 hitters. This season, he’s improved as he enters this start 10-5 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP over 119.1 innings of work. Williams is fourth in the league with 145 strikeouts and has cut his free passes down to 37, or 2.8 per nine innings. He pitches well against the Twins, posting a 4-3 mark with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.159 WHIP and 47 whiffs in 44 innings over nine career starts.

Current Minnesota hitters have a pedestrian .213 average over 108 at-bats. Meanwhile, Williams owns a 28.7% punch out rate (31 strikeouts) in those at-bats. In addition, the Twins are far more strikeout happy on the road (9.06 K) than at Target Field (7.31) this season. Those dominoes line up to Williams surpassing his number.

Chris Sale, Braves Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+122, Fanatics)

Sale may be 37 and not going as deep into games for the Braves as in the past but he still gets the job done. He owns a 10-6 record with a 2.06 ERA, a 1.057 WHIP and 123 punchouts over 105 innings of work on the year. Meanwhile, his 10.5 K/9 innings marks the seventh straight season where he pitched at least 40 innings with a double-digit K/9 rate. The Padres are average in terms of strikeouts as they fan 8.27 times per nine innings this season. Meanwhile, that number climbs to 8.74 whiffs a game on the road. In his career, Sale has limited current Padres’ hitters to a .266 average in 27 at-bats. Meanwhile, he has a 30.9% whiff rate (29 Ks) in that sample size. Take the over here as a result.

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Home Run Picks Today (07/23):

Junior Caminero, Rays (+250, Fanatics)

Caminero is having a stellar season for the Rays in 2026. He went into Wednesday’s contest with a .288 average, 16 doubles, 29 homers and 62 RBI on the year. That includes a .265 mark with 12 homers in 200 at-bats on the road this season. In addition, Caminero is 10 of 31 against the Blue Jays this season with a pair of doubles along with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (four) in those contests. He is one of two in his career against Shane Bieber, who gets the ball for the Blue Jays here. That one hit was a home run. Meanwhile, Caminero has a .373 average with three homers in 59 at-bats in his career at Rogers Centre. Look for him to take Bieber yard in this contest.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (+500, FanDuel)

Walker, after being a negative WAR player in his first three seasons in the majors, has been better in 2026 for the Redbirds. He entered Wednesday hitting .292 with 22 homers and a league-leading 76 RBI on the year, plus 14 steals. At Busch Stadium this year, Walker has a .302 average with nine doubles and nine homers over 189 at-bats. He faces Brandon Pfaadt, who is 4-1 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.305 WHIP over 59 innings of work this season. Pfaadt has given up eight long balls to this point of the year. If the Cardinals are going to stay in the playoff race, Walker has to get hot. Look for him to potentially go deep in this contest.

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