MLB Today’s Best Bets for 05/04: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

MLB Today’s Best Bets for 05/03: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

It’s a robust 12-game slate on the diamond to start the new week Monday, starting at 6:40 pm ET with a trio of contests. That trio of games features Tarik Skubal going for Detroit at home against the Red Sox. The schedule gives plenty of opportunities to find the best MLB bets today, including the top home run props. After looking over the slate, we’ve identified our favorite plays to bolster your bankroll. Without further ado, let’s get to the best options on the board for Monday, May 4.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 4

Cam Schlittler, Yankees Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110, Fanatics)

Schlittler has been lights out in the first five weeks of the 2026 season. He is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA, a league-leading 0.74 WHIP and 49 punchouts over 41.2 innings of work. Current Baltimore hitters have posted a .138 average in 29 at-bats against Schlittler. In addition, they have struck out 12 times, which is a 41.4% strikeout rate. Schlittler also gives the Yankees distance, having thrown into the sixth inning in five of his seven starts. Baltimore whiffs at the sixth-highest rate (9.21 per game) entering Saturday night. Ryan Weathers just got five punchouts in five frames Saturday and Max Fried picked up six in 5.1 inniings Sunday. It’s safe to say Schlittler has better stuff than both of them. Take the over here.

Tarik Skubal, Tigers Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-137, DraftKings)

Skubal is the two-time defending AL Cy Young winner. He is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA over 43.1 innings in seven starts this season for the Tigers. With that said, his strikeout rate is down this season. He averages 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings this season. While impressive, in the last three years, he averaged 11.4, 10.7 and 11.1 whiffs per nine innings. Boston is off to a slow start this season but they are middle of the road when it comes to strikeouts. The Red Sox are 14th with 8.24 strikeouts per game. Throw in that Skubal had an injury scare in his last start and there is a little worry. He has fanned more than seven hitters once in his seven starts. Therefore,  take the under  in this contest.

Bo Bichette, Mets Over 1.5 Total Bases (-136, DraftKings)

If the Mets want to turn things around, taking advantage of their time at Coors Field is a must. Tomoyuki Sugano has been solid for the Rockies so far this season, which has to be a surprise. He is 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.168 WHIP over 31.2 innings of work in six starts. A closer look shows Sugano had luck on his side as his FIP ERA is 4.73 on the year. That’s nearly two runs higher than his season mark. The Mets don’t have a ton of experience against him but one guy that does is Bichette. He went three of four with a double against Sugano last year. Bichette is seven of 17 with three homers and 10 RBI in three games at Coors Field. This could be a jump start for him.

Home Run Picks Today:

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+233, DraftKings)

Judge is always a threat to go deep in any given at-bat. He homered Sunday as the Yankees rolled to an 11-3 victory. That marked his 13th homer of the season, leaving him tied with the White Sox’ Munetaka Murakami for the league lead. Judge gets to take his hacks against Shane Baz, who takes the ball for the Orioles here. In his career, Judge is four of 10 against Baz. Two of his four hits left the yard. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but a 20% rate is nothing to sneeze at.

Shohei Ohtani (+235, Fanatics)

Ohtani hasn’t homered in his last six games. His last blast came back on April 26 against the Cubs at home. With that said, we know Ohtani has pop in his bat. Facing a Houston team that is dealing with a slew on injury concerns in their pitching staff could help. Steven Okert is slated to be the opener in this one before likely handing the ball off to Ryan Weiss. In 21.2 innings this season, Weiss is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA. He has handed out 16 free passes and given up six homers. That’s 2.49 homers per nine innings. Ohtani is due and Weiss is a pitcher that  can serve one up  to him.