MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 7
Welcome back! Monday’s MLB home run props offer a few long-shot numbers worth attacking. I’m looking at a Padres lefty in a great matchup, a Red Sox hitter who is red-hot, and a pitcher prop with regression written all over it.
Let’s get into my best MLB home run props and player props for Monday, Sept. 7!
MLB Home Run Props Today for Sept. 7
We’ll start in San Diego, where the Padres host the Washington Nationals. Jackson Merrill to hit a home run at +386 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my favorite home run prop of the day.
Jake Irvin gets the ball for Washington, and it has been another season of him allowing plenty of power to left-handed hitters. Irvin has allowed a .222 ISO to lefties this year, and his underlying profile suggests he is not fooling many opposing hitters.
According to Baseball Savant, Irvin ranks in just the fifth percentile in barrel rate allowed and hard-hit rate allowed. He also ranks in the third percentile in chase rate and does a poor job of keeping the ball on the ground.
Irvin may not be getting hit for as much power as he did in previous seasons, but he is still allowing a slugging percentage north of .400 to hitters from both sides of the plate.
Merrill’s .194 ISO against right-handed pitching is not elite, but his .239 expected ISO tells a better story. He has probably been a bit unlucky from a power perspective, and the expected numbers indicate that he has still been producing the type of contact that should result in more home runs.
The Padres have not produced the type of across-the-board power production many expected this season. But at +386, I’m willing to take a shot on positive regression showing up in a favorable matchup.
Best Bet: Jackson Merrill To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +386
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES MLB Home Run Predictions: Mickey Gasper
Next, we’ll head to Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in Labor Day afternoon action. Mickey Gasper to hit a home run at +630 on DraftKings is another long-shot prop I’m backing Monday.
Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez gets the start, and his surface-level numbers have not been impressive. Rodriguez has been better at times over the summer, but he has allowed an ISO north of .200 to both left- and right-handed hitters this season. That is not a great recipe against a hitter in the middle of a major power surge.
Gasper has been ripping the cover off the ball. He hit six home runs in 30 at-bats during August and has added two more in September. The 30-year-old did show some power in the minors, but this level of production has been a real breakout.
If Gasper had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would rank well above league average in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. Those are encouraging indicators that this is not simply a short-term heater fueled by bloop hits or favorable bounces. He is consistently producing dangerous contact, and that gives him real home run upside at a huge number.
The matchup isn't perfect, but it does not need to be at +630. Rodriguez has been vulnerable to power all season, and Gasper is seeing the ball exceptionally well. This is exactly the type of long shot I want to add to a Labor Day home run card.
MLB odds move quickly, so it’s worth checking the top sports betting apps before locking in a home run prop today!
Best Bet: Mickey Gasper To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +630
MLB Pitching Props Today: Michael McGreevy
For my best MLB player prop today, I’m taking Michael McGreevy over 2.5 earned runs allowed at +103 as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the San Francisco Giants.
This is a slight gamble because the game is at Oracle Park, a venue that generally gives pitchers a boost. However, McGreevy has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season, and I’m willing to fade him at plus money.
McGreevy owns a 3.97 ERA, but his 5.36 expected ERA tells a completely different story. That gap is massive!
The advanced metrics do not inspire much confidence either. McGreevy ranks no better than the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed or barrel rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant. He also strikes out very few hitters, meaning he is consistently relying on balls in play to get through starts.
That is a dangerous way to live. Pitchers who do not miss bats have a thinner margin for error, especially when their hard-contact metrics are this poor. McGreevy does not need to implode for this bet to cash. He simply needs to allow three earned runs, something his underlying numbers suggest should happen more often than the market is pricing in.
The Giants don't need to be an elite offense for me to get involved here. At +103, I’m happy to fade a pitcher whose expected performance is dramatically worse than his ERA.
Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, especially when targeting plus-money home run props and earned-run markets!
Best Bet: Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed DraftKings, +103
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 7