MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 4

Welcome back to my MLB home run props today! I'm looking at a Twins hitter at great odds and a Royals lefty in a mouthwatering matchup. I’m also fading Chris Sale in the strikeout prop market, which doesn't sound like fun, but it's for good reason. Let’s get into my best MLB home run props and player props for Friday, Sept. 4!

MLB Home Run Props Today for Sept. 4

We’ll start on the South Side, where the Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins. Ryan Jeffers to hit a home run at +547 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my favorite home run prop of the day.

White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde gets the ball, and he has struggled to limit right-handed power this season. Fedde has allowed a .246 ISO to righties while coughing up 16 of his 22 home runs to same-sided hitters. Righties are also slugging north of .500 against him.

The underlying numbers do not offer much optimism. Fedde ranks in the first percentile in chase rate and the fourth percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. He also allows an above-average amount of fly balls and hard contact, a dangerous combination against a hitter like Jeffers.

Jeffers has enjoyed a strong season despite missing time with an injury. He owns a .267 ISO against right-handed pitching, displaying reverse-split power that makes this matchup especially appealing. He also ranks well above league average in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

At +547, this is a number I am willing to chase. Fedde’s inability to miss bats means Jeffers should have opportunities to see hittable pitches, and the Twins catcher has the power profile to crush one.

Best Bet: Ryan Jeffers To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +547

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Jac Caglianone To Hit A Home Run

Next, we’ll head to Kansas City, where the Royals host the Toronto Blue Jays. Jac Caglianone to hit a home run at +377 on DraftKings is another MLB home run prop I’m backing Friday.

Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon has been an absolute punching bag for power this season. He has allowed a .299 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .244 ISO to righties. Those are disastrous numbers, and it is difficult to find a better matchup for a young slugger with Caglianone’s profile.

Caglianone has enjoyed a breakout season at just 23 years old. He ranks in the 91st percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, bat speed, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage. Those are elite power indicators for any hitter, let alone one in his first full Major-League season.

Cags has 23 home runs this year and owns a .514 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. With temperatures expected to reach the 80s in Kansas City, the ball should carry well. Caglianone is the guy I want to target in a Royals lineup that has a plus matchup against Taillon.

MLB odds move quickly, so it’s worth checking the top sports betting apps before locking in a home run pick in the Royals vs. Blue Jays game!

Best Bet: Jac Caglianone To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +377

MLB Player Props: Chris Sale

Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB player props today.

This is an uncomfortable fade. Sale is enjoying another sensational season and remains one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. However, the matchup sets up well for the Phillies to keep the strikeouts down.

Since Aug. 1, Philadelphia owns the best strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching at just 15.1% over 299 plate appearances. The addition of Luis Arraez has only helped improve the lineup’s contact profile. Arraez has struck out only 21 times all season, and placing that type of elite contact hitter in the middle of the order makes life more difficult for any strikeout pitcher.

Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, especially when targeting plus-money home run props and strikeout lines!

Best Bet: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -160

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!