MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 3
Welcome to my favorite MLB home run props and predictions for today (Sept. 3)!
I'm targeting one power hitter in Houston, a young Marlins slugger in Kansas City, and I also have a strikeout prop to close things out. Let's dive into my top MLB player props for Thursday!
MLB Home Run Props Today for Sept. 3
We’ll start in Houston, where the Astros host the Chicago White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET. Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run at +261 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB home run pick today.
Luis Castillo takes the mound for Chicago, and he simply is not the pitcher he once was. Castillo owns an ERA north of 5.00 this season and has struggled badly against left-handed hitters.
The underlying numbers are equally concerning. Castillo has allowed an expected ISO north of .200 to lefties while ranking below the 20th percentile in barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate allowed, and expected batting average. He has also surrendered 16 home runs to left-handed hitters, who are slugging .530 against him.
Castillo is also not missing bats at his previous level. He ranks in just the 29th percentile in strikeout rate, which is a major problem when he is consistently allowing hitters to put the ball in play with authority. His expected slugging percentage allowed is also the highest mark of his career, further confirming that the decline is not just a few bad starts or poor sequencing.
Why to Back Yordan Alvarez Against Luis Castillo Today
That is dangerous against Alvarez, who remains one of the most complete offensive players in baseball. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant. The better question is: What does he not do well at the plate? Not much!
There was some concern that Alvarez might have been slowing down, but he has shown he still has plenty of juice left in the tank. He continues to crush right-handed pitching, rarely gives away at-bats, and has the kind of elite batted-ball profile that can turn even a marginal Castillo mistake into a home run.
The Astros superstar owns an expected ISO near .350, strikes out less than 20% of the time, and continues to rank among the game’s best hitters in virtually every meaningful advanced metric. He gets the platoon advantage against a declining right-hander, and he has more than enough raw power to punish one mistake.
Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez To Hit A Home Run (+261, DraftKings)
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES MLB Home Run Predictions: Heriberto Hernandez
Next, we’ll head to Kansas City, where the Royals host the Miami Marlins. Heriberto Hernandez to hit a home run is another MLB home run prop I’m backing Thursday.
Royals right-hander Michael Wacha has been solid overall, but he has struggled to contain right-handed power. He has allowed a .251 ISO to righties this season while striking out only 18% of them. Wacha has done an acceptable job limiting barrels, but he continues to allow a healthy number of fly balls.
That is noteworthy against Hernandez, who has shown strong reverse-split power. The Marlins outfielder has six home runs since Aug. 1 and 22 on the season. His power is nearly identical against both sides of the plate, and he owns a .217 expected ISO against right-handed pitching.
Wacha has allowed 14 home runs to right-handed hitters, who are slugging nearly .500 against him. MLB odds move quickly, so it’s worth checking the top sports betting apps before locking in a home run pick in the Royals vs. Marlins game!
Best Bet: Heriberto Hernandez To Hit A Home Run (+301, DraftKings)
MLB Strikeout Props Today: Hunter Brown
For my MLB strikeout prop today, I’m taking Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts at -101 as the Astros host the White Sox.
Chicago has some thump in its lineup, but the projected lineup also includes two hitters with strikeout rates north of 30%. If Jake Rogers starts behind the plate, that creates another favorable matchup for Brown, as he's pushing 30% vs. RHP as well.
Brown is striking out 25% of hitters this season. His chase and whiff rates have dipped, but I expect some positive regression as the season winds down. He owns a 3.58 expected ERA and has done an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground.
At nearly even money, I’m willing to bet on Brown’s strikeout upside against a White Sox lineup that offers several paths to punchouts.
Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, especially when money comes in and odds start getting juiced on player props.
Best Bet: Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-101, DraftKings)
Honorable Mention: Kade Anderson Over 5.5 Strikeouts
For a fourth prop worth considering, I also like Kade Anderson over 5.5 strikeouts at +105 against the Athletics.
Anderson is one of the game’s better pitching prospects, and while he has endured a bit of a rough start to his Major League career, the upside is real. He has pitched only 10 innings as a professional, so there is simply not enough of a sample to draw major conclusions about his current ability.
The swing-and-miss upside is obvious. Anderson struck out 135 hitters in just 93.1 minor-league innings this season, an elite rate that shows he has the stuff to dominate hitters when he is locating. He allowed only 11 earned runs and 47 hits over that stretch, going 10-1 with a 1.06 ERA.
The Athletics are a favorable opponent for a young pitcher looking to find his footing. Injuries have depleted their lineup, leaving them with limited offensive depth and fewer established hitters capable of grinding out difficult at-bats.
At plus money, I’m willing to bet on Anderson’s pedigree and talent. He has not put it all together yet, but this is the type of matchup where the breakout could come quickly.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
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