MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 27
We finally made it to the last day of the MLB regular season. It has been a wild year for MLB home run props, and while Sunday brings meaningful games across the league, it also brings some miserable conditions on the East Coast.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these home run predictions. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 27)
Cold weather, heavy rain, and possible delays are not what home run bettors want to see. So, I am scaling back a little on the final regular-season card and targeting hitters with enough raw power to beat the weather.
Before locking in your card, check confirmed lineups, weather, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Corey Seager, +339
The Rangers visit the Twins at Target Field for a 3:10 p.m. ET first pitch, and Minnesota right-hander Dean Kremer is expected to take the mound. Kremer has not allowed a massive home run total simply because he has logged only 83 innings this season, but the underlying profile remains very attackable.
Kremer has allowed a .235 ISO to left-handed hitters. He also ranks in just the 14th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 13th percentile in ground-ball rate, according to Baseball Savant.
That is a bad combination against Seager. The Rangers' shortstop owns a .185 ISO this season, but his expected ISO is all the way up at .232. That tells me more power may have been available throughout the year than the surface-level result suggests.
Seager has missed plenty of time across the past two seasons, but he is healthy now and is closing the regular season with some pop. He has six home runs in September, showing the kind of late-season power bettors want to see when backing a plus-money home run prop.
The matchup makes sense. Kremer allows left-handed hitters to lift the ball, he has given up too many barrels over his career, and Seager remains one of the better left-handed power bats in baseball when he gets a pitch to drive.
Best Bet: Corey Seager To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +339
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Randal Grichuk, +333
Next, we head to the South Side of Chicago.
The White Sox host the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET, with Colorado left-hander Kyle Freeland expected to get the ball. Freeland’s numbers are never going to look great because he pitches half his games at Coors Field, but the struggles have not been limited to Denver.
Freeland has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters in 2026. He is striking out only 17% of righties and has allowed a ridiculous .279 ISO to that side of the plate. That's a nightmare setup for him against Randal Grichuk.
The veteran outfielder continues to age well as a power hitter. He has only 262 at-bats this season, but he has made the most of them with 14 home runs. If he qualified, the 35-year-old would rate in borderline-elite territory in several important metrics, including expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and launch-angle sweet spot percentage.
Grichuk has been especially dangerous against left-handed pitching. In 162 at-bats against southpaws, he has hit 10 homers with a .642 slugging percentage and a massive .315 ISO.
Best Bet: Randal Grichuk To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +333
Home Run Prediction #3: Francisco Lindor, +409
The Mets finish their disappointing season against the Nationals, and Washington is expected to send left-hander DJ Herz to the mound. Herz is a pitcher I targeted just a few days ago, and I am willing to go right back to the well.
He made his MLB return during the previous turn through Washington’s rotation after working only about 25 minor league innings across multiple levels. Herz had some real swing-and-miss ability during his prior big-league stint, but he struggled with keeping the ball on the ground.
His first start back did not inspire much confidence. Herz gave up four runs in four innings against Detroit, including a home run, and took a 9.00 ERA into the final game of the regular season.
That's enough for me to look toward Lindor. It's been a frustrating season for the Mets, and Lindor has been far from his best. But he has still hit 20 home runs and started to show more life late in the year, leaving the yard six times in September.
The power metrics still give him a chance to finish with one more big swing. Lindor ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 86th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Baseball Savant.
Best Bet: Francisco Lindor To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +409
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES 170,000 GC + 7 SC Where To Bet On Home Run Props
Before betting Sunday home run props, compare prices across the top MLB betting sites. An extra 20 or 30 cents on a plus-money home run price can make a meaningful difference, especially in a high-variance market.
You can also compare the best sports betting apps for available props, alternate markets, and potential odds boosts.
It's been an awesome regular season of home run betting. There were hot streaks, cold streaks, bad beats, and plenty of questions about the baseball itself. Jordan Walker winning the Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park was one of the year’s more memorable moments.
But the playoffs are a different animal.
Home run betting gets much harder once managers begin leaning heavily on their best relievers in high-leverage spots. For now, enjoy one more regular-season slate, keep the stakes sensible, and make sure your players are in the lineup before betting.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB home run props today!
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