MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 26

Written By Chris Kubala | Published at September 26, 2026

Sep 11, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (9) hits a single during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Natalie Reid-Imagn Images

It’s the next to last day of the MLB regular season and that brings us to my top home run and player props for Saturday, September 26.

With it being late in the season, you’ll have to doublecheck lineups and such but there are still some sound options out there.

Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 26)

We’ve found three solid home run props. They involve a Houston/Athletics matchup in Sacramento, an AL Central clash in Kansas City and a NL East tilt at Nationals Park. With that said, let’s break down my top home run prop picks for the Saturday slate.

Home Run Prediction #1: Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

Let’s start with a matchup in one of the most homer friendly home parks in the sport. Paredes has turned in a solid year for Houston. He entered Friday hitting .261 with 27 doubles, a triple, 24 homers and 93 RBI on the year.

He gets to face Jack Perkins, who has been brutal at Sutter Health Park this season. Perkins is just 1-7 with a 7.05 ERA over 60 innings of work there. Opposing hitters have a .286/.362/.506 slash line against Perkins at home. In addition, they have a .341 average on balls in play compared to a .236/.322/.387 slash line on the road.

Throw in that Perkins is in the 31st percentile for barrel rate allowed (8.5%) and 24th percentile for ground ball percentage (37.9%) and that’s bad news in a hitters’ park. Meanwhile, Paredes is two-for-three in his career against Perkins. Both hits were homers and he’s driven in six runs against him.

I expect Paredes to go yard again in this contest.

Best Bet: Isaac Paredes To Hit A Home Run Hard Rock, +400

Home Run Prediction #2: Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

We’ll head to an AL Central matchup for our second home run prop play. The Royals are playing out the string while the Guardians are trying to earn the AL Central title. It’s been a rough year for Pasquantino, who is hitting .246 with 20 doubles, two triples, 15 homers and 60 RBI in 111 games this season.

He’s found his power stroke of late, launching six homers and driving in 19 runs over 73 at-bats in September. Meanwhile, he has three homers and 11 RBI over the last six games entering Friday night.

Tanner Bibee has had a rough season for the Guardians. He is 6-15 with a 4.35 ERA while allowing 29 homers in 182 innings of work. Left-handed hitters have blasted 22 of the long balls that Bibee surrendered this season. Bibee is also below average in barrel rate (38th percentile) and hard hit percentage (39th percentile) this season.

In addition, Pasquantino has tormented Bibee in his career. He is 11-for-18 (.611) with two doubles, a triple and two home runs against him.

In a lost season for the Royals, Pasquantino finishes strong.

Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquantino To Hit A Home Run Hard Rock, +750

Home Run Prediction #3: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

I get it. It’s been a horrible year for the Mets and their fanbase. Lindor is no exception as he heads into the final weekend of the year hitting just .225 with 12 doubles, four triples, 20 homers and 45 RBI in 102 games.

With that said, Lindor has been better in the month of September. He has six homers in the month despite barely staying over the Mendoza line as far as average goes. Getting a crack at Jake Irvin is a solid way to try and finish on a positive note.

Irvin is just 2-9 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 101.2 innings of work this season. He gives up a ton of hard contact, ranking in the sixth percentile in hard hit percentage (44.6%) this year. In addition, he is in the sixth percentile in barrel rate (10.6%) allowed. Throw in that he’s in the 10th percentile for expected ERA (5.18) and the 25th percentile for ground ball rate (38%) this year and it gets ugly.

Lindor is nine-for-25 (.360) with three doubles and two homers against Irvin in his career. Irvin surrendered seven homers over 39.2 innings at Nationals Park this year. Lindor can put one in the seats.

Best Bet: Francisco Lindor To Hit A Home Run Hard Rock, +525

Before placing a Saturday home run prop, compare pricing across the leading sports betting apps and the best MLB betting sites. Home run props are volatile by nature, and price-shopping matters even more when you are betting plus-money markets.

Good luck with all of your bets!