MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 25
You’ve found my favorite MLB home run props and player props for Friday, Sept. 25!
We are down to the final weekend of the regular season, but there is still plenty to attack on the player prop board. I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these home run predictions and player props. Let’s dive into the best bets!
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 25)
Munetaka Murakami has a dream matchup against a struggling Colorado starter, while Kazuma Okamoto gets a left-handed pitcher who has endured a lost season. I’m also fading Michael McGreevy’s strikeout total against a Milwaukee offense that does not make life easy on opposing starters.
Before locking in your card, check confirmed lineups and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami may never be a high-average hitter at the Major League level. The strikeouts are going to be part of the package, and opposing pitchers will always have a path to attacking him.
But when Murakami connects, the baseball has a chance to disappear in any ballpark and in almost any weather condition.
Chicago gets a cool day for baseball Friday, but the conditions don't change much when you are backing a true power hitter. Murakami has posted a massive .294 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, an absurd figure for a first-year MLB slugger.
Of course, it should not be a complete surprise.
Murakami arrived from Japan as one of the most accomplished power hitters in the sport. He had already built a legendary resume in NPB, and his power has carried over immediately.
Friday brings a matchup with Colorado right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano has been one of the worst-qualified pitchers in baseball by expected metrics. He ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant. Somehow, it gets worse: his barrel rate allowed sits in the second percentile. Sugano has also struggled to keep the ball on the ground. Nothing is good.
This is a straightforward bet on elite raw power against terrible underlying pitching indicators.
Best Bet: Munetaka Murakami To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +409
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto has been one of the few bright spots in an uneven Blue Jays season.
Like Murakami, Okamoto is not built around an empty batting average. He is a power-first hitter with legitimate thump, and Toronto has seen that upside throughout 2026. Okamoto enters Friday with 33 home runs, and the advanced metrics say the production is not an accident.
Okamoto ranks in the 89th percentile in barrel rate. He is also at least in the 71st percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
The Blue Jays host the Reds at Rogers Centre on Friday, with Nick Lodolo expected to start for Cincinnati. Lodolo enters the matchup with a 5.04 ERA, and blister issues have derailed much of his 2026 campaign.
The left-hander’s advanced profile has been even uglier than the ERA. Lodolo ranks in the first percentile in both expected ERA and expected batting average. There is very little in the profile that suggests a turnaround is coming before the regular season ends.
Okamoto has handled left-handed pitching well in a limited sample, posting a .517 slugging percentage and a strong .269 ISO against southpaws.
Rogers Centre can play well for power, and Okamoto should get the platoon matchup he wants against a lefty who has been unable to find any consistency.
Best Bet: Kazuma Okamoto To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +365
MLB Pitching Prop Today: Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts
I have faded Michael McGreevy for much of the season, and I'm not interested in stopping now.
McGreevy owns a respectable 3.84 ERA, but the expected metrics make it difficult to view him as anything more than a pitcher who has received a lot of favorable outcomes. His expected ERA is all the way up at 5.32, a massive gap that suggests regression has been waiting around the corner.
The lack of swing-and-miss stuff is the primary issue.
McGreevy ranks in just the 11th percentile in whiff rate and sits below league average in chase rate. Those are troubling numbers for any pitcher, but they become more important when looking at strikeout props.
Friday’s matchup with Milwaukee is another reason to look under.
The Brewers have been one of the peskiest lineups in baseball all year. They compete, put balls in play, work counts, and make it difficult for starters to record clean, efficient innings.
McGreevy can certainly turn in a usable outing. He can mix pitches, avoid the middle of the plate, induce weak contact, and give the Cardinals five or six innings.
But that does not automatically translate to strikeouts.
This is a simple fade of a below-average swing-and-miss profile against an opponent that makes pitchers earn every out. I'm backing under 3.5 strikeouts at even money.
Best Bet: Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +100
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES 170,000 GC + 7 SC Where To Bet On Home Run Props
Before betting Friday home run props, compare prices across the leading MLB betting sites. Getting an extra 20 or 30 cents on a plus-money price can make a meaningful difference over the course of a season, especially in a high-variance market such as home runs.
You can also compare the best sports betting apps for available player props, alternate totals, and odds boosts. With only a few regular-season games remaining, lineup confirmations, late scratches, weather, and possible workload restrictions deserve extra attention.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB home run props today!
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