MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 23
You’ve found my favorite MLB home run props and player props for Wednesday, Sept. 23! Today’s MLB home run props are built around Coors Field and a struggling Aaron Nola. I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these home run predictions. Let's dive into it.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 23)
Mickey Moniak and Corbin Carroll make the card, while Brice Turang gets an enormous number against a veteran who has allowed too much elevated contact all season. We only have a few days left in the MLB regular season. Let's have some fun before we get into the playoffs. By next week, betting home runs becomes extremely difficult, as managers overwork their high-leverage pitching options.
Before locking in your card, check confirmed lineups and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak is the first Coors Field home run prop I’m interested in Wednesday.
Moniak was a former top prospect for years with the Phillies. He mashed in the minors, but never put it together at the Major League level with Philadelphia. After a disappointing tenure, Moniak has truly broken out with the Rockies. Sure, the elevation helps at home, but he's been solid for the better part of two seasons now.
Colorado is hosting Arizona on Wednesday, and probable starter Merrill Kelly is in a difficult spot against left-handed power. Kelly has put together a nice Major League career, but 2026 has been rough. Father Time may finally be catching up with him.
Kelly has allowed a .252 expected ISO to left-handed hitters this season, and Moniak owns a .260 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2026. This matchup meshes well, and Moniak is slugging above .500 against RHP. The underlying metrics support the pop too. He ranks well above league average in barrel rate and bat speed, according to Baseball Savant.
Moniak homered Tuesday, so he comes into Wednesday seeing the ball well. I am not blindly chasing yesterday’s box score, but it is a nice bonus when the hitter in a strong platoon split is also arriving with some confidence.
Best Bet: Mickey Moniak To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +571
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Corbin Carroll
Let’s stay in Denver and go directly to Corbin Carroll.
Carroll has had a disappointing year by his standards, but that does not mean the underlying skill vanished. In fact, the advanced metrics say a lot of the talent is still right where it should be. He's still one of the scariest left-handed hitters in baseball.
Carroll ranks in at least the 81st percentile in barrel rate, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. Meanwhile, Mason Adams is scheduled to start for Colorado, and he has yielded a .215 ISO to left-handed hitters in 2026. The sample is small, but there is not much in Adams’ profile that suggests he is ready to suppress a hitter like Carroll in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball.
If Adams had enough innings to qualify, he would sit near the bottom of the league in many relevant pitching categories. The Rockies bullpen is not exactly a comforting fallback either. Carroll may get an early look against Adams and then multiple chances against a relief group that has been brutal in 2026.
Best Bet: Corbin Carroll To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +270
Home Run Prediction #3: Brice Turang
Brice Turang at +850 is the kind of longshot number I want to have a little fun with.
Turang will face Aaron Nola at Citizens Bank Park, and while cooler temperatures are beginning to show up along the East Coast, Philly remains a great park for power.
Turang has shown more pop than many expected in 2026. He has 19 home runs and a .499 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching.
Nola has been typical Aaron Nola this season. He's allowed 34 home runs this year while carrying a career-high fly-ball rate. His 9.1% barrel rate allowed is also tied for a career high.
That is not ideal when facing a lefty who has shown enough pop to make a +850 price very intriguing.
Nola is still capable of putting together a strong start. He can miss bats, work deep into games, and make this bet look silly with six clean innings. But a home run prop does not require Turang to win the matchup all night. He just needs one mistake, and Nola has thrown enough meatballs in 2026 to make that possible.
At +850, I am not asking Turang to be the most likely home run hitter on the slate. I'm asking whether his true probability is better than the number suggests. With the split, ballpark, and Nola’s fly-ball issues, I think it might be.
Best Bet: Brice Turang To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +850
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Before betting any Wednesday home run props, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. A slight difference in a plus-money price matters, and that is especially true when you are considering a high-variance market like home runs.
You can also compare the best sports betting apps for available player props and boosts. Baseball’s final weeks can get a little strange, so stay flexible with lineup news and keep the stakes sensible.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB home run props today!
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