MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 22

Written By Justin Carlucci | Published at September 22, 2026

Sep 18, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Nolan Arenado (28) looks on in the seventh inning of a game against the New York Yankees at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images

You’ve found my favorite MLB home run props and player props for Tuesday, Sept. 22! The regular season is winding down, which means starting lineups can get a little weird, but there are still a few home run matchups worth attacking.

Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 22)

I’m looking at a left-on-left matchup in Atlanta where platoon splits do not scare me, a Coors Field power bet with a nice price, and a Baltimore play that depends on a lineup check. Let's dive into my top home run picks.

Home Run Prediction #1: Matt Olson

Let’s start in Atlanta, where the Braves host Cincinnati and Brandon Williamson is scheduled to take the mound.

Williamson is a left-hander, which will scare some bettors away from Matt Olson. Normally, a lefty-lefty matchup is enough to make a home run prop less attractive. Olson is not a normal left-handed hitter, though, and Williamson is not a pitcher I want to trust against anybody with elite raw power.

Olson is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. His .237 ISO against left-handed pitching is the number that jumps off the page here. He does not need the platoon advantage to do damage, and he has repeatedly shown that he can hit moonshots against southpaws too.

Williamson has allowed a .278 ISO to left-handed batters this season. That is a horrifying mark for any pitcher, much less a lefty whose job is supposed to include limiting left-handed power. His 5.56 ERA is bad enough, but the underlying numbers are even uglier.

According to Baseball Savant, Williamson carries a 6.40 expected ERA and ranks in just the first percentile in chase rate. Hitters are simply not fooled against him.

The rest of his profile is exactly what we want from a home run target. Williamson ranks well below average in barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate allowed, and ground-ball rate.

Give me Olson to take advantage of a terrible lefty.

Best Bet: Matt Olson To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +300

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Home Run Prediction #2: Nolan Arenado

The second play takes us to Coors Field, which is not exactly a place where I need to talk myself into a power bet.

Arizona visits Colorado for an 8:40 p.m. ET start, and Kyle Freeland is expected to face a Diamondbacks lineup with Nolan Arenado in the middle. Arenado is 35 years old, has heard plenty of “maybe he is finished” talk over the past couple of years, and has spent much of 2026 reminding everyone that the bat still has plenty of life.

He has homered twice since last Wednesday and is pushing for another 30-homer season. More importantly, he has produced a .259 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2026.

That puts Freeland in a really difficult spot.

The Rockies left-hander owns a 6.38 ERA and has been crushed by right-handed hitters. Freeland ranks in the sixth percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. Those are not numbers you can survive with when you are pitching at altitude.

Right-handed batters are slugging .591 against Freeland this season, and he has allowed 24 home runs to that side of the plate. Coors Field always increases the margin for error for hitters. A fly ball that dies on the track in a normal park can turn into a souvenir in Denver. A barrel can turn into a no-doubter before the outfielder even takes a step.

Arenado brings enough lefty-crushing ability to take advantage. One fastball in the wrong part of the zone can get him there, and the +404 price is more than enough for me to take a chance.

Best Bet: Nolan Arenado To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +404

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Home Run Prediction #3: Samuel Basallo

Basallo is currently listed as day-to-day, so check the Orioles lineup before locking in a home run bet today. If he is active, though, he gets a matchup built for the type of left-handed power we want to back.

Baltimore hosts Toronto at 6:35 p.m. ET, and Max Scherzer is expected to start for the Blue Jays. Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer. He is also a pitcher who has become increasingly vulnerable to left-handed power dating back to last season.

That's not a sentence I ever expected to type about Scherzer, but we have to bet on the current version of a player, not the version that collected Cy Young awards and terrified lineups for a decade.

Scherzer has allowed a .200 ISO to left-handed hitters in 2026, and the issue extends back to the beginning of last year. Lefties have been able to get the ball in the air against him, and too many of those balls have done real damage.

Basallo has 18 home runs this season, with 16 coming against right-handed pitching. That's an important split against Scherzer. The Orioles have plenty of right-handed pop, but Basallo gives them a left-handed hitter capable of exploiting the one area where Scherzer has been repeatedly vulnerable.

Scherzer can still strike out anybody on the planet when he has his best stuff, but those days are mostly long gone.

Best Bet: Samuel Basallo To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, TBD

Home Run Prediction: Honorable Mention

The other guy who I'm unsurprisingly interested in is Pete Alonso. I'm pretty sure Alonso is matchup-proof at this point. He's been worth every penny of that contract the Orioles gave him, and he's been by far the best player for Baltimore in 2026. I surely can't talk you out of Alonso in his current form.

Before placing a Tuesday home run prop, compare pricing across the leading sports betting apps and the best MLB betting sites. Home run props are volatile by nature, and price-shopping matters even more when you are betting plus-money markets.

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB home run props today!