MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 17

Written By Justin Carlucci | Published at September 17, 2026

Sep 8, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) reacts to flying out in the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

We’re back with more of the best MLB home run props today! The NFL might be back, but Thursday’s slate has some great MLB bets to target. Let's dive into the picks for Sept. 17!

Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 17)

I’m targeting Jackson Merrill, Max Muncy, and Juan Soto in favorable matchups. Let’s dive into the best MLB home run props and player props today!

Home Run Prediction #1: Jackson Merrill

We’ll start at Coors Field, where the Rockies host the Padres. Jackson Merrill to hit a home run on DraftKings Sportsbook is my favorite MLB home run prop Thursday.

Tanner Gordon gets the ball for Colorado, and the overall track record has not been good. He owns a 5.55 ERA this season, backed by a 4.58 expected ERA.

Gordon posted a 6.33 ERA across roughly 75 innings last season, and he carried an ERA north of 8.00 in his 2024 big-league sample. The right-hander has also been far worse at home than on the road this season, posting a 7.47 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP across 53 innings in Colorado.

According to Baseball Savant, Gordon ranks in the seventh percentile in both barrel rate allowed and ground-ball rate allowed. That is a brutal combination when pitching at altitude. He's also allowed a .261 ISO to left-handed hitters this season.

Merrill has been fantastic down the stretch, and his advanced metrics are hard to ignore. He ranks in at least the 80th percentile in just about everything that matters, including expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.

Colorado's bullpen is a total mess, so when Gordon wraps up his shift, the Padres are still in a great spot to go deep.

Best Bet: Jackson Merrill To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +327

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Home Run Prediction #2: Max Muncy

Next, we’ll go back to the well with Max Muncy at Great American Ball Park. The Dodgers face the Reds, and Muncy to hit a home run on DraftKings is another MLB home run prop I’m targeting Thursday.

Brady Singer gets the ball for Cincinnati, and he has struggled throughout 2026. Singer owns a 5.38 ERA and, like Gordon, has allowed an ISO north of .200 to left-handed hitters this season.

Muncy is exactly the type of hitter to attack that weakness. He owns a very strong .243 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2026 and gets the platoon advantage in a terrific hitting environment.

Singer’s advanced metrics only make the matchup better. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 16th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and third percentile in average exit velocity allowed.

Singer has struggled to limit quality contact, and Muncy has consistently punished right-handed pitching. Great American Ball Park is a great place to bet on power, so sign me up for Muncy in this matchup.

Best Bet: Max Muncy To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +254

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MLB Player Prop Today: Juan Soto

For my MLB player prop Thursday, I’m backing Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases against Aaron Nola.

Soto is an elite hitter, and Nola has struggled with allowing power this season while posting a career-high fly-ball rate. I am not a huge batter-vs-pitcher guy, but when a hitter has an extensive history against a pitcher, it can be the icing on the cake.

Soto is hitting .283 against Nola with five home runs across 46 career at-bats. That is enough history to add another layer to an already appealing matchup.

Best Bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, +117

Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, particularly when looking at pitching markets and home run props.

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!