MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 16

Written By Justin Carlucci | Published at September 16, 2026

Sep 15, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Detroit Tigers left fielder Riley Greene (31) celebrates with team mates in the dugout after scoring a run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

We’re back with another round of the best MLB home run props for today’s action. Wednesday’s slate offers two left-handed hitters in strong matchups against underwhelming right-handed pitchers, plus a pitching prop worth targeting at Target Field.

Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 16)

I’m targeting two Yankees and a Tiger on Wednesday. Let’s dive into the best MLB home run props and player props for Sept. 16!

Home Run Prediction #1: Luis Garcia

We’ll start at Target Field, where the Twins host the Yankees. Luis Garcia to hit a home run on DraftKings Sportsbook is my favorite MLB home run prop for Wednesday.

Zebby Matthews gets the ball for Minnesota, and this is a matchup I want to attack with left-handed power. Matthews has allowed 23 home runs this season, including 13 to left-handed hitters. Lefties are slugging .473 against him, and he has allowed an ISO north of .200 to that side of the plate.

According to Baseball Savant, Matthews ranks in just the fourth percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 23rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He has also struck out only 20% of left-handed hitters.

Garcia is enjoying a career season after arriving in New York in a midseason deal. He has 30 home runs, which is already close to matching the 34 he hit across the previous two seasons combined. Twenty-seven of those 30 homers have come against right-handed pitching in 2026, and he is slugging .580 in that split.

Garcia also ranks in at least the 86th percentile in barrel rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, and expected batting average. Sign me up.

Best Bet: Luis Garcia To Hit A Home Run DraftKings

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Home Run Prediction #2: Riley Greene

Next, we’ll go north of the border, where the Tigers visit the Blue Jays. Riley Greene to hit a home run on DraftKings is another MLB home run prop I’m targeting today.

Max Scherzer gets the ball for Toronto, and the future Hall of Famer enters with a 6.38 ERA. Left-handed hitters have taken advantage of Scherzer since the beginning of 2025, making this an appealing spot for Greene.

Greene has 20 home runs this season, including four in September. His advanced profile suggests there could be even more power coming. He ranks in the 89th percentile in bat speed, 98th percentile in launch-angle sweet spot, and at least the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate. He is also in the 95th percentile in both barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

Those are elite indicators. Grene's metrics place him among the league’s more interesting power bats. He gets a veteran right-hander who has had trouble with lefties, and that is enough for me to buy Greene’s stock in this matchup. I'm buying some Greene stock to close out the season, and I'll be targeting him early next year as well.

Best Bet: Riley Greene To Hit A Home Run DraftKings

Before locking in a home run prop today, it is worth comparing prices across the top MLB betting sites.

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MLB Player Prop Today: Carlos Rodon

For my MLB strikeout prop Wednesday, I’m backing Carlos Rodon over 4.5 strikeouts at -148.

Minnesota has ranked 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in September, and the Twins are striking out at a 27% clip against southpaws during the month.

That gives Rodon a good matchup as the Yankees continue their push toward the postseason. He only needs five strikeouts to cash this number, and Minnesota’s recent struggles against lefties create a strong path for him to get there.

Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -148

Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, particularly when looking at pitching markets and home run props.

Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!