MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 12

Saturday's MLB slate is loaded with home run props, and a few left-handed hitters are in excellent spots. I'm targeting a pair of power bats in great matchups against vulnerable right-handed pitchers. Let's get into my favorite MLB home run props and player props for Saturday, Sept. 12!

MLB Home Run Props Today for Sept. 12

We'll start in Detroit, where the Tigers host the Colorado Rockies at 1:10 p.m. ET. Riley Greene to hit a home run on DraftKings Sportsbook is my favorite MLB home run prop Saturday.

Tanner Gordon gets the ball for Colorado, and this is a matchup I want to attack with left-handed power. Gordon has been much worse at home, but lefties have still put up big numbers against him overall. They are hitting .297 with a .554 slugging percentage against the right-hander.

The underlying profile is just as concerning. Gordon ranks in the eighth percentile in ground-ball rate, so he consistently allows elevated contact. That is rarely a good thing when you are facing a dangerous left-handed hitter. He also ranks no better than the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate or barrel rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant.

Gordon does not walk many hitters, either, with a 4% walk rate. That sounds positive on the surface, but it means he is consistently around the zone and giving opponents opportunities to put the ball in play, which is great for our purposes. His combination of limited ground balls, poor quality-of-contact results, and plenty of strikes is a dangerous formula against someone like Greene.

Greene may not have the massive home run total some expected before the season, but he has started to heat up in September. He has three homers and a .719 slugging percentage to begin the month, and he owns an ISO north of .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

This is the type of matchup where Greene can do damage in a hurry. Gordon has allowed too much loud contact to lefties, and Greene's recent form makes him one of the best MLB home run props today.

Best Bet: Riley Greene To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +292

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MLB Home Run Predictions: Alec Burleson

Next, we'll head to St. Louis, where the Cardinals host the Chicago White Sox at 7:15 p.m. ET. Alec Burleson to hit a home run on DraftKings is another MLB home run prop I'm backing Saturday.

Luis Castillo takes the mound for Chicago, and the veteran right-hander has struggled badly in 2026. He owns a 5.57 ERA, and the underlying metrics suggest there is little reason to expect a sudden turnaround. Castillo ranks no better than the 21st percentile in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate allowed, or average exit velocity allowed, according to Baseball Savant.

That is a rough profile to take into a matchup with Burleson. Castillo has allowed a .531 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters, who have already taken him deep 16 times. He also owns a .243 ISO allowed to lefties and strikes out just 16% of them.

Burleson is enjoying a nice power surge in 2026, already launching 22 home runs. Nineteen of those blasts have come against right-handed pitching, and he owns a .548 slugging percentage in that split.

The matchup could not be much better. Burleson gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher who has struggled to keep the ball on the ground, misses fewer bats against lefties, and has allowed plenty of power all year. If you're betting a home run prop Saturday, this is exactly the type of split matchup to get excited about.

Props move quickly, so it is worth comparing prices across the top sports betting apps before locking in a plus-money home run pick.

Best Bet: Alec Burleson To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +470

Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, particularly when looking at pitching markets and home run props.

Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!