MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 8
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props for Thursday, Oct. 8!
We’ve got slim pickings as the Division Series continues. Cleveland visits Chicago for Game 4 of the ALDS at Rate Field, with first pitch scheduled for 8 p.m. Eastern. The White Sox lead the series 2-1, while the Guardians are trying to keep their season alive.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for these MLB home run picks. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 8)
These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the postseason. Parker Messick is listed as Cleveland’s starter, while Chicago’s starter remains to be determined. That leaves us with one known pitching matchup and some uncertainty on the other side.
Nothing about this matchup is screaming at me. Messick is a difficult pitcher to attack, and we don’t yet know exactly which combination of arms the White Sox will use.
That doesn’t mean we can’t find a couple of small-price plays. It does mean I’m keeping expectations realistic rather than forcing a big betting card just because there’s a game on television.
Before placing your bets, confirm the starting lineups, Chicago’s pitching plans, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Randal Grichuk
I’m taking Randal Grichuk to hit a home run at +640 on DraftKings. That’s a funny sentence to be writing in 2026, but the veteran absolutely demolished left-handed pitching this season.
Grichuk finished the regular season with 15 home runs. Eleven came against southpaws, and he slugged a massive .655 in that split. That’s the matchup I’m interested in with Messick on the mound.
I’m not sitting here expecting Messick to give up a home run. He’s had an excellent season, and this isn’t a spot where I want to pretend the opposing pitcher has some obvious weakness.
But if I’m taking a small swing against him, Grichuk’s production against lefties makes him a reasonable candidate.
His underlying contact numbers support the argument. According to Baseball Savant, Grichuk posted an 11.2% barrel rate and a 49.8% hard-hit rate this season. Those aren’t empty numbers attached to a hitter who happened to run into a few pitches.
The price matters, too. At +640, I’m getting a substantial payout for backing a hitter whose best regular-season split lines up with the announced starter. Of course, the matchup can change once Cleveland goes to its bullpen. Grichuk’s appeal here is strongest against a left-hander, so I’m not treating this as a matchup-proof play.
That’s another reason to keep the bet tiny and make sure he’s in the starting lineup. This is a price play against a very good pitcher, not a declaration that Messick is about to get knocked around.
Best Bet: Randal Grichuk To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +640
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Jo Adell
On the other side, I’m going with Jo Adell at +441 on DraftKings.
Adell finished the regular season with 23 home runs, and he remains one of the power hitters I’m interested in revisiting for Cleveland. We don’t know exactly which mixture of arms Chicago will use Thursday. That makes this a less straightforward argument than Grichuk getting an announced left-handed starter.
Still, I’m willing to take a small swing with Adell. If he sees a left-hander, the regular-season split is excellent. Adell hit 14 home runs and slugged .599 against southpaws this year. That’s meaningful production, and it gives him a clear path to being dangerous if Chicago includes a lefty in its pitching plan.
The contact quality is worth considering as well. Baseball Savant lists Adell’s hard-hit rate at 44.9% this season. When he squares up the baseball, there’s enough power here to make him interesting in this market.
I don’t want to overstate the matchup while Chicago’s starter is still TBD. This isn’t a situation where we can confidently map out every pitcher Adell will face.
It’s a small bet on a hitter with demonstrated power, particularly if he gets an opportunity against a southpaw. At +441, he’s my Cleveland selection to hit a home run.
Best Bet: Jo Adell To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +441
White Sox Home Run Odds
Here are the listed DraftKings home run odds for the White Sox hitters:
- Munetaka Murakami: +400
- Miguel Vargas: +434
- Colson Montgomery: +525
- Randal Grichuk: +640
- Kyle Teel: +830
- Brenton Doyle: +840
- Tommy Pham: +930
- Chase Meidroth: +1120
- Braden Montgomery: +1320
Guardians Home Run Odds
Here are the Cleveland hitters and their listed prices on DraftKings:
- Jo Adell: +441
- Jose Ramírez: +526
- Chase DeLauter: +579
- Nathaniel Lowe: +640
- Patrick Bailey: +740
- Angel Martinez: +790
- Brayan Rocchio: +940
- Travis Bazzana: +960
Where To Bet MLB Home Run Props
Before placing Thursday’s bets, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. The prices above reflect the DraftKings board at the time of writing and can change before first pitch.
Also, a player appearing in the market doesn’t guarantee he’ll start. Confirm the lineup before backing anyone, especially when your argument depends on a specific pitching matchup.
Grichuk and Adell are my two small swings. Nothing here calls for a big investment, but it should be an exciting baseball game nonetheless. Good luck, and enjoy the game on Thursday!
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MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 8
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