MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 28
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Wednesday, Oct. 28!
I hope you had some coffee Tuesday. Tampa Bay avoided a sweep with a 4-3 comeback victory over Milwaukee in 12 innings, keeping this World Series alive. The Brewers carried a one-run lead into the bottom of the 12th, but the Rays did what they do: extended at-bats, fought through two-strike counts, and found enough hits to survive.
Now, they’re back at Tropicana Field at 8 p.m. Eastern, with Milwaukee leading the series 3-1 and sending Jacob Misiorowski to the mound.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s card. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!
Best MLB Home Run Props And Player Props Today (Oct. 28)
These remain entertainment-sized bets, especially the home run selection.
Milwaukee has the clearer starting-pitching situation, while Tampa Bay appears headed toward a bullpen game. That makes identifying a specific hitter-versus-pitcher matchup difficult.
According to Rays beat reporter Marc Topkin, five Tampa Bay pitchers didn’t appear Tuesday: Garrett Cleavinger, Steven Matz, Cole Sulser, Freddy Peralta, and Drew Rasmussen.
That doesn’t mean all five are rested. Peralta threw 87 pitches Monday, while Rasmussen threw 89 Saturday. There’s a difference between sitting out one game and being ready for a substantial workload.
Rather than build a home run prediction today around an uncertain pitching sequence, I’m backing a well-rounded Milwaukee hitter. My other play targets Misiorowski’s strikeout total. Confirm Tampa Bay’s pitching plans, both lineups, and the latest MLB odds before betting!
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction: William Contreras
I’m taking William Contreras to hit a home run at +518 on DraftKings.
I’m certainly not rushing to pick on Misiorowski, so I’m looking toward Milwaukee’s lineup for a home run prop today. Contreras stands out because his appeal doesn’t depend entirely on which arm Tampa Bay sends out first.
He’s one of the Brewers’ most polished hitters against pitchers from either side, which matters when the opposing pitching plan could involve several changes. Nobody is matchup-proof. But I’d rather back someone who can remain dangerous through those multiple pitching changes than rely on one favorable plate appearance.
Contreras has also been doing damage against excellent postseason pitching. He enters Wednesday with three home runs in 47 playoff at-bats and a .596 slugging percentage. He’s recorded multiple hits in three of his last four appearances, even after going 0-for-4 Tuesday.
One hitless game doesn’t scare me away. It also doesn’t erase the quality of contact behind the broader performance.
According to Baseball Savant, Contreras ranks above the 70th percentile in expected batting average, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and squared-up percentage.
That’s the profile I want when trying to find a home run pick against quality pitching. There isn’t an obvious weak arm to attack, so I’m backing a hitter with several ways to produce dangerous contact.
The betting odds are also very appealing. At better than 5-1, I’m comfortable taking a small shot rather than looking for the perfect play, which is nearly impossible at this stage of the season.
If you prefer a broader offensive market, his hits, runs, and RBIs prop is worth checking. You could divide a predetermined small stake between the two after comparing prices, but that doesn’t eliminate risk. Both wagers would still depend on Contreras producing.
For my betting card, I’m sticking with the homer.
Best Bet: William Contreras To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +518
MLB Player Prop: Jacob Misiorowski Under 5.5 Strikeouts
My second and final play is Jacob Misiorowski under 5.5 strikeouts at -101 on DraftKings.
This one can make you uncomfortable in a hurry. Misiorowski’s advanced profile is ridiculous, with numerous important categories sitting in the 99th or 100th percentile. The talent isn’t in question.
But having elite stuff and collecting six strikeouts in a particular matchup are different things. Miz hasn’t worked beyond five innings in a postseason appearance. He’s also finished with three and five strikeouts, respectively, in each of his last two outings against the Rays and Dodgers.
His three postseason starts have ended at pitch counts of 88, 94, and 78. Those workloads matter when we’re asking how many opportunities he’ll receive to reach six punchouts. Milwaukee used eight pitchers Tuesday, which is a legitimate concern for this under. A taxed bullpen could encourage the Brewers to ask more from their starter.
Still, his recorded-outs line sits at 15.5. Oddsmakers still are not buying that he's capable of working deep into Game 5 of the World Series.
The bigger reason for this bet is Tampa Bay.
The Rays struck out in just 19% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, the second-lowest rate in baseball. They’ve been a pain for righties all year, and Tuesday offered another reminder of their willingness to battle through difficult counts.
Misiorowski could pitch very well, keep Milwaukee ahead, and still finish with four or five strikeouts. We don’t need Tampa Bay to knock him around. Of course, he could make this look silly by striking out six before the fifth inning. That’s always possible with this much talent.
At essentially even money, though, I’m backing the combination of Tampa Bay’s contact skills and a workload that hasn’t stretched deep into games.
Best Bet: Jacob Misiorowski Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -101
Where To Bet MLB Props
Compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites before locking anything in. Contreras to homer and Misiorowski’s strikeout prop round out this small card. Keep the stakes sensible, and enjoy World Series Game 5.
Good luck!
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