MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 26
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Monday, Oct. 26!
The World Series kicks off the workweek with Milwaukee heading to Tampa Bay with a 2-0 lead. After an unbelievably entertaining game Saturday, the Brewers have done their job at home and taken control of the series.
Now, the Rays need an answer. Robert Gasser takes the mound for Milwaukee against Tampa Bay’s big midseason acquisition, Freddy Peralta. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. Eastern at Tropicana Field.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s card. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!
Best MLB Home Run Props And Player Props Today (Oct.26)
These remain entertainment-sized bets.
Postseason baseball is difficult enough to handicap with this much pitching talent available. Add Sunday’s off day, and both managers should have plenty of bullpen options ready. That matters when evaluating a starter’s workload or chasing a home run prop.
Still, I’ve got three angles: Junior Caminero to homer, Peralta’s earned-run under, and Gasser’s strikeout under. Before placing your bets, confirm the starting lineups and compare the latest MLB odds. All prices below are subject to change.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction: Junior Caminero
I’m taking Junior Caminero to hit a home run at +379 on DraftKings.
Gasser has exceeded expectations this season, but there are a couple of reasons to consider Tampa Bay’s right-handed power. He’s allowed 13 home runs to right-handed hitters, and his 4.27 expected ERA suggests we’re not dealing with an untouchable arm.
More importantly for this wager, his ground-ball rate ranks in just the seventh percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Opposing hitters have been able to get the ball into the air. Of course, that alone hasn't translated to the southpaw giving up oodles of home runs. Gasser has done a good job limiting hard contact, and that’s the biggest obstacle here.
That’s also why I’m backing Caminero rather than simply picking any right-handed hitter. His bat speed and barrel rate are elite, which gives him a rare combination of power to overcome a difficult matchup. He doesn’t need everything to line up perfectly to put a ball in the seats.
Caminero has broken out into a full-blown superstar, and he’s become one of my first considerations whenever I’m hunting for home run props. Getting the platoon advantage against a left-handed starter makes the case more appealing.
We might only get a couple of opportunities against Gasser before Milwaukee changes pitchers. There’s no guarantee the matchup lasts too long.
However, we’re starting with a powerful right-handed hitter against a pitcher who allows plenty of balls in the air. At +379, that’s enough for a small swing.
Best Bet: Junior Caminero To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +379
MLB Player Prop #1: Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 Earned Runs
My next play is Freddy Peralta under 1.5 earned runs allowed at -109 on DraftKings. We need Peralta to finish with one earned run or fewer. Two earned runs beat us.
Freddy's season hasn’t been a straight line. He struggled with the Mets, then needed some time to settle in after joining Tampa Bay. But the pitcher we’ve watched lately looks considerably different.
Following his Aug. 21 outing, Peralta has made 10 starts, including the postseason, and allowed one earned run or fewer in every one.
That’s an unbelievable stretch. It doesn’t guarantee another dominant performance Monday, especially against the National League champions, but it deserves plenty of weight. Tampa Bay has a reputation for helping pitchers make adjustments, and Peralta’s recent results have given us reason to believe he’s found something.
I’m not convinced this price fully captures how well he’s pitched over the past two months, but there’s another angle, too: workload.
Kevin Cash has a rested bullpen available, and Tampa Bay is down 2-0. If Peralta starts creating traffic or struggling through an inning, Cash doesn’t have to wait around.
A quick hook could help limit the damage, although inherited runners remain a concern. Removing Peralta with men aboard doesn’t erase his responsibility if those runners score.
Still, there are multiple paths here. Peralta can continue his excellent run, or Tampa Bay can turn to its bullpen before an outing gets away from him.
At -109, I’m interested.
Best Bet: Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed DraftKings, -109
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass! 170,000 GC + 7 SC MLB Player Prop #2: Robert Gasser Under 3.5 Strikeouts
I’m also taking Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts at -132 on DraftKings.
The workload is my starting point. His recorded-outs prop sits at 12.5, with the under heavily juiced. That suggests the market isn’t expecting an especially long outing.
A short appearance doesn’t guarantee fewer than four strikeouts, but it limits his opportunities.
Then there’s the underlying profile. Gasser’s strikeout rate sits around 22%, placing him in the 49th percentile. However, his whiff and chase rates each rank no higher than the 28th percentile.
Those numbers make me less comfortable expecting him to consistently collect punchouts. The strikeout rate is respectable, but the swing-and-miss indicators aren’t particularly strong. Now he faces Tampa Bay, the toughest team in baseball to strike out.
Gasser could pitch effectively and still finish with two or three strikeouts. That’s the outcome I’m backing.
Best Bet: Robert Gasser Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -132
Where To Bet MLB Props
Compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites before locking anything in. Caminero’s home run prop, Peralta’s earned-run under, and Gasser’s strikeout under round out my Monday MLB betting card. Keep the stakes sensible, and enjoy Game 3.
Good luck!
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