MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 24
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Saturday, Oct. 24!
Friday’s World Series opener offered a little bit of everything. Milwaukee held off Tampa Bay 3-2, with the Rays making things interesting in the ninth inning. If that’s what we’re getting throughout this series, sign me up.
Now, we turn to Game 2 at American Family Field, where Drew Rasmussen faces Logan Henderson at 8 p.m. Eastern. That’s another talented pitching matchup, and the 6.5-run game total tells you how little offense the market expects.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s card. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!
Best MLB Home Run Props and Player Props Today (Oct. 24)
These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the postseason.
We’re down to two teams with excellent pitching, and the managers are doing whatever it takes to win. Finding a comfortable home run pick isn’t easy when a bullpen move can change everything.
Saturday’s betting board reflects that challenge. Nobody is priced shorter than +400 to homer on DraftKings, and only two hitters are shorter than +500. Slim pickings? Absolutely. But there’s one Tampa Bay hitter whose matchup interests me at a big number.
Jonathan Aranda is my home run selection. Then I’m combining two earned-run props into one pitching parlay rather than forcing another long-ball wager.
Before placing your bets, confirm the starting lineups and check the latest MLB odds. Prices are subject to change.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda
I’m taking Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run at +620 on DraftKings. Let’s acknowledge the obvious: Henderson is an excellent pitcher. This isn’t a matchup where I’m expecting Tampa Bay to knock him around.
According to Baseball Savant, Henderson ranks in the 95th percentile in expected ERA and carries a strikeout rate near 30%. Those aren’t numbers I’m excited to attack.
However, if we’re looking for a hole to poke, his ground-ball rate sits in just the fourth percentile. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, and that gives us something to consider when shopping for a home run.
Henderson allowed 14 homers this season, with 10 coming against left-handed hitters. Lefties slugged .360 against him, roughly 30 points higher than right-handed hitters.
That still isn’t a particularly inviting slugging percentage. I’m not dressing this up as some glaring weakness. But relative to the other difficult matchups on Saturday’s board, Aranda’s left-handed power is worth a look at +620.
His recent form certainly helps. Aranda went 3-for-3 in the opener, a performance that included facing Jacob Misiorowski. That followed a pair of multi-hit games during the Cleveland series.
He hasn’t homered since Tampa Bay’s opening postseason game against the Yankees on Oct. 3, but the hits have started coming. He’s batting above .250 this postseason, and Friday’s performance gives us another reason to believe he’s seeing the ball well.
Of course, collecting singles doesn’t guarantee a home run is coming. A hot stretch and a fly-ball matchup can still produce nothing more than a couple of routine outs.
That’s why this remains a tiny wager.
We’re trying to find a capable hitter with something working in his favor against a very good pitcher. Aranda’s recent form, left-handed bat, and Henderson’s tendency to allow balls in the air give me enough to take the shot.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +620
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass! 170,000 GC + 7 SC World Series Player Props: Drew Rasmussen and Logan Henderson
My other wager combines Drew Rasmussen to allow two or fewer earned runs and Logan Henderson to allow two or fewer earned runs at -140 on DraftKings.
That’s the price for the two-leg combination, not each pitcher individually. Both starters must finish with no more than two earned runs for the parlay to cash. There’s still juice attached, so I’m not calling it a bargain. I simply like the matchup for both arms.
Start with Rasmussen. His 3.06 expected ERA supports the idea that his success isn’t built on smoke and mirrors. He does a better job of keeping the ball on the ground than Henderson, and he rarely allows barrels. That’s a useful combination against a Milwaukee lineup capable of making pitchers work.
Henderson’s underlying profile is even more eye-catching, with a 2.74 expected ERA. What a breakout season for the 24-year-old. Misiorowski attracts plenty of attention, and understandably so. But Henderson is a major part of why Milwaukee reached this stage too.
His strikeout ability gives him a way to escape trouble without relying on a ball finding a defender. When we’re betting an earned-run ceiling, that matters. Both pitchers bring strong underlying numbers into a game with a 6.5-run total. That doesn’t guarantee a duel, but the market’s expectation fits the general direction of this World Series parlay.
The biggest concern is that two legs create two opportunities for something to go wrong. One poorly timed homer or an inherited runner scoring can spoil the ticket.
Aranda could hit a solo homer, and Henderson could still finish below the earned-run threshold. While it seems unlikely, there’s a path for both bets to win, even if it’s far from assured.
Top Parlay Picks: Drew Rasmussen And Logan Henderson Each To Allow Two Or Fewer Earned Runs DraftKings, -140
Where To Bet MLB Props
Compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites before locking anything in. Aranda’s home run bet and the earned-run parlay round out my small Saturday World Series betting card. Keep the stakes sensible, and enjoy Game 2.
Good luck!
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MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 24
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