MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 23
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Friday, Oct. 23! The World Series is set between the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, just like everyone drew it up back in spring training, right?
These teams have put together incredible seasons, and now we get to see which one can finish the job. There’s plenty of talent in both lineups, but the pitching makes this matchup especially interesting.
Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for Milwaukee against Nick Martinez, who has exceeded just about everyone’s expectations. I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s card. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!
Best MLB Home Run Props And Player Props Today (Oct. 23)
These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the postseason.
Elite starting pitching makes hunting home runs difficult enough. Now, we’re adding two excellent, fully rested bullpens to the equation. Neither manager needs to leave a struggling pitcher out there simply to save some arms.
That doesn’t mean we can’t find an angle. It just means I’m not forcing a big wager because the World Series is finally here. I have one home run prop on deck and two other MLB picks that are standing out to me.
Before placing your bets, confirm the starting lineups and compare the latest MLB odds.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction: William Contreras
I’m taking William Contreras to hit a home run at +560 on DraftKings. That looks like a pretty generous number for a hitter this good. However, it also shows how much respect the market has for the pitching on both sides.
There’s just one player priced shorter than +400 to homer on the DraftKings board. Everyone else is +470 or longer, which is pretty crazy. Still, Contreras gives me a reason to take a small swing.
He’s been ripping the cover off the ball this postseason, with three home runs and a .700 slugging percentage across 30 at-bats. That’s obviously a small sample, but I’m interested in backing a dangerous hitter who’s already making plenty of loud contact.
Martinez presents a challenge. His 88th-percentile ranking in hard-hit rate allowed tells us he’s been excellent at limiting damage. However, according to Baseball Savant, Martinez ranks in just the second percentile in whiff rate and the fourth percentile in strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Contreras can also do damage against pitchers from either side. He hits right-handers, but a bullpen move to a lefty doesn’t automatically wipe out the appeal here.
I’m not calling anyone matchup-proof against this pitching staff, but at +560, I’ll take a small shot on Contreras carrying his October power into the opener.
Best Bet: William Contreras To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +560
MLB Pitching Prop: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts
My pitching prop is Nick Martinez under 3.5 strikeouts at -155 on DraftKings.
There’s some juice attached, and I’m not pretending this price is a steal. Still, the combination of limited swing-and-miss and a potentially short outing gives me a reasonable path to the under.
We need Martinez to finish with three strikeouts or fewer. Missing bats simply hasn’t been the foundation of his success. He can pitch well, generate weak contact, and keep Tampa Bay competitive without piling up strikeouts. This isn’t necessarily a bet against his ability to get outs.
It’s also a bet on how many opportunities he’ll receive. Martinez’s recorded-outs line is 13.5, which puts the workload reference point at 4.5 innings. That seems Vegas is eyeballing a pretty short outing for Martinez overall.
With a fresh bullpen available, Tampa Bay has options if Martinez creates traffic or starts laboring through innings. There’s little reason to let the opener get away while waiting for him to settle down.
The risk is straightforward: he could strike out four hitters early. A limited workload doesn’t automatically save this wager. However, given his pitching profile and the available relief help, I’m willing to pay the price for the under.
Best Bet: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -155
World Series Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays To Win
My final play is Tampa Bay to win the World Series at +160 on DraftKings. Honestly, I just really like the value on this pick. The timing matters. If the Rays steal Game 1 against Misiorowski, I’d expect this price to shorten considerably.
Tampa Bay owns baseball’s lowest strikeout rate, and that contact-heavy approach makes the Rays interesting against Milwaukee’s pitching. They’re difficult outs at the plate who can make pitchers work rather than relying entirely on the long ball.
Putting the ball in play doesn’t guarantee runs, especially against a staff this talented. But it gives Tampa Bay another way to compete. Their bullpen has clearly defined roles, and Drew Rasmussen waiting in Game 2 adds to the appeal.
Milwaukee deserves plenty of respect. I’m simply comfortable taking the underdog price before the series begins.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays To Win The World Series DraftKings, +160
Where To Bet MLB Props
Compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites before locking anything in. Contreras to homer, Martinez’s strikeout under, and Tampa Bay’s series price round out my card. Keep the stakes sensible, and enjoy the World Series.
Good luck!
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