MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 16
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Friday, Oct. 16!
We’re down to the final three teams after the Brewers stormed through the NLCS, sweeping the Dodgers in four games. Who saw that coming? Milwaukee absolutely took care of business against Los Angeles and now gets to wait for its World Series opponent.
Meanwhile, the Guardians host the Rays at Progressive Field at 8 p.m. Eastern. Cleveland leads the ALCS 2-1, with Nick Martinez scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s card. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!
Best MLB Home Run Props and Pitcher Bets Today
These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the postseason.
We’ve got one game, uncertainty surrounding Cleveland’s pitching plan, and the likelihood of cool October conditions. That’s a lot to work through when we’re trying to find a home run hitter.
Cleveland hasn’t announced its starter in the available preview. Joey Cantillo, Foster Griffin, and Tanner Bibee are names I’m considering as possible parts of their pitching plan, but I’m not treating any of them as confirmed.
That uncertainty is why I want a hitter whose appeal doesn’t disappear with one pitching change. Junior Caminero is my home run selection, while Martinez’s pitching-outs round out this small betting card.
Before placing your bets, confirm the starting lineups, Cleveland’s pitching plans, and the latest MLB odds.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #1: Junior Caminero
I’m taking Junior Caminero to hit a home run at +485 on DraftKings. He had a brutal afternoon Thursday, finishing 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. That’s not the kind of performance anyone wants to carry into the next game.
However, I’m not moving away from a hitter with this much power because of one bad afternoon. At nearly 5-1, I’m interested in backing Caminero’s ability to bounce back.
The pitching uncertainty matters here. We don’t know exactly which combination Cleveland will use, and I don’t want to build the entire argument around a matchup that might not happen.
If Bibee gets involved, though, there’s a clear reason to consider the home run angle. He allowed 29 home runs during the regular season. Bibee can pitch, but keeping the ball in the yard was an issue.
If Cantillo pitches, we’re dealing with a talented left-hander. Again, that’s not an easy assignment, but it’s another matchup where I’m comfortable considering Caminero’s right-handed power against a southpaw.
The appeal is that I don't automatically lose interest when Cleveland changes pitchers. Of course, that doesn’t make this a matchup-proof bet. The Guardians have talented arms, and we could easily watch Caminero have another difficult night.
I’m just looking for someone with the bat speed and raw power to leave the yard even when the conditions aren’t ideal, and Caminero strikes me as that guy in the lineup. He finished the regular season with 42 home runs. That doesn’t guarantee anything Friday, but it’s a reminder that this isn’t a bet on an occasional power hitter running into one.
Best Bet: Junior Caminero To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +485
MLB Pitching Prop #1: Nick Martinez Under 11.5 Outs
My pitching prop is Nick Martinez under 11.5 recorded outs at +104 on DraftKings. We need Martinez to finish with 11 outs or fewer. If he completes four innings, the bet loses.
That’s a short number, but I think the circumstances make it worth considering at plus money. Tampa Bay is trailing in the series, and I don’t expect the Rays to let a game get away simply to preserve their bullpen.
If Martinez creates traffic or Cleveland starts putting together difficult at-bats, Tampa Bay has options. This isn’t a bet that Martinez is a bad pitcher. He had a strong regular season, finishing with a 3.10 ERA.
But he isn’t a dominant strikeout arm. Martinez recorded 109 strikeouts in 180 innings during the regular season, so opposing hitters will put plenty of balls in play.
That’s where the under can get interesting. A few grounders finding holes, an extended inning, or a couple of well-timed hits can create pressure without Martinez necessarily pitching terribly. Against a disciplined Cleveland lineup, I’m interested in that possibility.
His previous postseason start also shows how narrow this margin can be. Martinez worked 3 2/3 innings against the Yankees in the Division Series, allowing two runs on five hits. That doesn’t guarantee Tampa Bay will handle him the same way Friday, but his leash could be very short again under Kevin Cash.
Best Bet: Nick Martinez Under 11.5 Recorded Outs DraftKings, +104
Where To Bet MLB Props
Before betting, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Confirm Cleveland’s pitching plans and both starting lineups before locking anything in.
Caminero’s home run and Martinez’s outs under are my two small plays. Keep the stakes sensible, and enjoy Friday’s playoff baseball. Good luck!
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