MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 15

Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Thursday, Oct. 15! We’ve got two League Championship Series games on tap, and I’m focusing today’s betting card on the ALCS matchup in Cleveland.

The Rays and Guardians enter Game 3 tied 1-1. Gavin Williams gets the ball for Cleveland, while Tampa Bay turns to Griffin Jax. First pitch at Progressive Field has moved to 1 p.m. Eastern because of rain in the forecast later in the day.

I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s picks. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!

Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 15)

These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the playoffs. We’re dealing with talented pitchers and strong bullpens, so finding a clean home run matchup isn’t easy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t prices worth considering.

Jose Ramirez is my home run prop today, and the payout is the biggest part of the appeal.

I’m also taking the strikeout under for both starting pitchers in the Guardians vs. Rays game. These lineups can make opposing pitchers work, and I think the circumstances give us reasons to consider both numbers.

Before betting, confirm starting lineups, pitching plans, and the latest MLB odds. Let's dive into the analysis.

Home Run Prediction: Jose Ramirez

I’m taking Jose Ramirez to hit a home run at +620 on DraftKings. Yes, that’s a long price for someone with his track record. He had a down regular season by his standards, but we’re still talking about a hitter who has spent years making life miserable for opposing pitchers.

Ramirez finished the regular season with 12 home runs and a .688 OPS. That helps explain why his price looks different from what we’re accustomed to seeing. But he’s heating up at the right time.

Entering Thursday, Ramírez is batting .333 with a .667 slugging percentage and two home runs this postseason. Two home runs came across his last four appearances. That’s the version of Ramirez I’m interested in backing at this number.

Jax is a good pitcher, and this isn’t an argument about that. The Rays also have strong options behind him, which makes betting a home run difficult regardless of who starts. Jax converted from a reliever to a starting pitcher, and I'm never really too confident in his leash.

The bottom line: this is a crazy price for someone like Ramirez, even in a brutal matchup. We may never see Ramirez at 6/1 or better again, so I'm considering that some real value.

Best Bet: Jose Ramirez To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +620

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MLB Pitching Prop: Gavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts

My first pitching prop is Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts at -142 on DraftKings. Williams has incredible stuff. This isn’t a bet against his ability to dominate a lineup. It’s a bet that Tampa Bay is a difficult opponent to collect seven strikeouts against.

The Rays finished the regular season with the lowest overall strikeout rate in baseball. In fact, they had the third-best strikeout rate vs. RHP since Aug. 1. They consistently put the ball in play, and that can make even an excellent strikeout pitcher work harder for his outs.

Williams can miss bats, but long plate appearances can push his pitch count higher without necessarily producing a punchout. That’s the concern when we need him to get to seven.

With the series tied and a rested bullpen available after Wednesday’s off day, the Guardians have options if they need to make a move. Williams can pitch well and still finish with five or six strikeouts. At -142, I’m willing to pay the price for the under.

Best Bet: Gavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -142

MLB Pitching Prop: Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts

I’m taking Griffin Jax under 3.5 strikeouts at +104 to finish the betting card. His workload is a major part of this argument. His listed pitching-outs line of 11.5 also suggests a relatively short outing rather than an expectation that he works deep into the game.

I’m backing the combination of a potentially limited workload and a Cleveland lineup that I expect to make him earn his strikeouts. There are only two teams that posted better strikeout rates vs. right-handed pitching than Tampa since Aug.1, and one of them is the Guardians.

Best Bet: Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +104

Before placing your bets, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Keep the stakes small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy Thursday’s playoff baseball. Good luck!