MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 12
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Monday, Oct. 12! The League Championship Series continues with two games Monday. The Dodgers visit the Brewers for Game 2 of the NLCS at 5 p.m. EST, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Logan Henderson. Then the Rays host the Guardians in the ALCS opener at Tropicana Field at 8 p.m. EST.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s picks. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions today!
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 12)
We’ve got limited options at this point in the postseason, and these are entertainment-sized bets. I’m focusing my betting card on the nightcap, where Foster Griffin is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland against Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen. Cleveland has a very good bullpen, so even if we like the starting matchup, there’s no guarantee our hitters will get many opportunities against Griffin.
Still, he’s the pitcher I’m most interested in attacking on this two-game slate. I’m doubling down on Tampa Bay’s right-handed power with Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz, then taking a Griffin pitching prop.
Before betting, confirm the starting lineups, pitching plans, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Junior Caminero
I’m taking Junior Caminero to hit a home run at +441 on DraftKings. If you thought I’d go to one of the best right-handed power hitters in baseball against Griffin, you’re absolutely right.
Griffin had a successful regular season, finishing with 15 wins and a 3.60 ERA. This isn’t a situation where I’m pretending the opposing starter can’t pitch. However, he did allow 23 home runs during the regular season. That gives me enough reason to consider a power hitter such as Caminero, especially at this price.
Caminero finished the regular season with 42 home runs. He’s the kind of hitter who can turn one mistake into a winning home run bet without needing the entire lineup to have a big night. That’s what I’m looking for here.
I’m not asking Tampa Bay to knock Griffin around for several innings. I’m backing a hitter with established power against a pitcher who hasn’t been immune to allowing the long ball. Of course, Cleveland’s bullpen complicates things. Caminero could get a couple of opportunities against Griffin, but then face a completely different matchup later.
That’s part of betting home runs in October. There aren’t many soft spots left, and managers aren’t going to let a starter struggle indefinitely. Still, I think Caminero is in one of the better spots available on this small slate. At +441, I’m willing to take a tiny shot.
Best Bet: Junior Caminero To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +441
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Yandy Diaz
I’m staying with Tampa Bay and taking Yandy Diaz to hit a home run at +552.
Diaz has been around the block, and he’s an incredibly polished hitter. His power doesn’t always jump out the way a perennial home run leader's does, but that doesn’t mean he can’t do damage.
The righty veteran finished the regular season with 22 home runs after hitting 25 last year. What makes him interesting is the combination of contact and hard contact. According to Baseball Savant, Diaz posted a 48.1% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph this season. He also struck out in just 14.3% of his plate appearances. He doesn’t need to sell out for power to hit the baseball hard.
The home-road splits are what really caught my attention. Diaz slugged .531 with 16 home runs at home this season. On the road, he slugged .370 with six home runs. That’s a massive difference, and Monday’s game is at Tropicana Field.
I’m not treating that split as a guarantee that he’ll leave the yard. But when we’re searching for a price play on a short slate, it’s a meaningful part of the argument.
Again, I’m doubling down on the same general angle rather than pretending these are two completely separate matchup ideas. If Griffin pitches well and Cleveland’s bullpen takes over, both home run bets could be in trouble.
That’s why it's just another very small home run bet today.
Best Bet: Yandy Diaz To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +552
MLB Pitching Prop: Foster Griffin Under 3.5 Strikeouts
My final selection is Foster Griffin under 3.5 strikeouts at -101 on DraftKings.
I know this number is uncomfortable. Griffin needs to get just four strikeouts for the bet to lose. But this is a difficult opponent to pile up punchouts against.
Tampa Bay finished the regular season with the lowest strikeouts per game average. This lineup consistently puts the ball in play rather than handing opposing pitchers easy strikeouts.
Griffin recorded 158 strikeouts in 172 2/3 regular-season innings. He can pitch effectively, but he isn’t a dominant strikeout arm. Griffin's workload is another consideration. We’ll see how long Cleveland lets him work, particularly if Tampa Bay creates traffic.
I’m not counting on an early exit. I just think the opponent and the postseason circumstances make this a tough spot to collect four punchouts. Griffin can pitch reasonably well and still finish below this number.
Best Bet: Foster Griffin Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -101
Before placing your bets, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Keep the stakes small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy Monday’s games. Good luck!
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