MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 11
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Sunday, Oct. 11! The NLCS kicks off tonight, with the Dodgers visiting the Brewers at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. EST, and one of these clubs will eventually punch its ticket to the World Series.
If you like chasing home runs, this might be about as difficult a pitching matchup as you’ll find. Tarik Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski are two of the best pitchers in baseball, and neither gives us much to attack.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s card. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 11)
The good news? We’re getting great MLB odds on today's MLB home run props. The bad news? There’s a pretty good reason for those prices. The game total is sitting at six runs, which tells you plenty about how little scoring the market expects.
As always, these are entertainment-sized bets. That warning couldn’t be more appropriate today. We’re dealing with elite starting pitching, and neither team is going to make things easier once it turns to the bullpen.
Jackson Chourio is my home run selection, while Misiorowski’s pitching outs and Teoscar Hernandez’s batter strikeouts wrap up my betting card. Let's get into the analysis.
Before betting, confirm starting lineups and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction: Jackson Chourio
I’m taking Jackson Chourio to hit a home run at +587 on DraftKings.
There isn’t much to break down about Skubal in terms of finding an obvious weakness. He’s incredible. We’re swimming upstream with just about any hitter we choose against him. But Chourio’s production against left-handed pitching gives me a reason to consider a small bet.
He hit nine home runs in 153 at-bats against southpaws during the regular season, posting a .333 batting average and a .575 slugging percentage.
That doesn’t make Skubal an easy matchup. It does give us a hitter who showed he could consistently do damage against pitchers throwing from that side. Chourio finished the regular season with 25 home runs, and I think his underlying contact profile leaves room for even more power down the road.
According to Baseball Savant, he posted a 12.3% barrel rate, a 47% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph this season. Those are the kinds of numbers that make me think a 30-home run season, or eventually something even bigger, is within reach next season.
The price is the important part. I’m not backing Chourio because I expect Milwaukee to score a bunch of runs against Skubal. I’m backing a talented hitter with strong numbers against lefties at a payout that makes a tiny swing interesting.
However, we could easily watch Skubal dominate this matchup. That’s why I’m not getting carried away with the investment.
Best Bet: Jackson Chourio To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +587
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170,000 GC + 7 SC MLB Pitching Prop: Jacob Misiorowski Over 16.5 Outs
Next, I’m taking Jacob Misiorowski over 16.5 pitching outs at -108 on DraftKings. I think there’s a chance he makes a statement in this game.
In my opinion, Misiorowski is the best pitcher in baseball. This is the type of stage Milwaukee has been building him toward, and I’m willing to back him to record at least 17 outs. That means we need him to get through five innings and collect two more outs in the sixth.
Misiorowski finished the regular season with 16 wins, a 1.80 ERA, and 252 strikeouts in 174 2/3 innings. The talent isn’t the question. He also allowed just a 3.6% barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. He can miss bats while making it difficult for hitters to produce dangerous contact.
The concern is the leash. Milwaukee has a strong bullpen, and this isn’t a spot where I can simply assume the Brewers will let him work through every difficult inning. His first start of the Division Series lasted four innings.
I’m acknowledging that risk rather than ignoring it. Still, I think this could be the outing where he works deeper. If he’s controlling the game and keeping his pitch count manageable, I like his chances of getting those two outs in the sixth in front of the home crowd.
Best Bet: Jacob Misiorowski Over 16.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -108
MLB Player Prop: Teoscar Hernandez 2+ Strikeouts
My final selection is Teoscar Hernandez to strike out at least twice at -113 on DraftKings.
This isn’t a market I usually dabble in, but the pitching matchup makes it worth considering. It’s another angle built around my expectation that Misiorowski pitches well.
Hernandez remains dangerous when he makes contact. However, he finished the regular season with a 27.5% strikeout rate, and Baseball Savant lists his whiff rate at 32.6%. That’s plenty of swing-and-miss to consider against a pitcher with Misiorowski’s stuff.
We don’t need Hernandez to have a completely unproductive night. He can contribute offensively and still strike out twice. Of course, two strikeouts aren’t automatic. But I’m expecting Misiorowski to make plenty of bats miss.
Best Bet: Teoscar Hernandez 2+ Batter Strikeouts DraftKings, -113
Before placing your bets, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. As usual during the playoffs, keep the stakes small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy the start of the NLCS.
Good luck!
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