MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 10
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Saturday, Oct. 10!
We’ve got a prime-time, winner-take-all matchup as the Guardians host the White Sox in Game 5 of the ALDS. The game is scheduled for 8 p.m. Eastern at Progressive Field, with Gavin Williams taking the mound for Cleveland and Sean Burke pitching for Chicago.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for today’s bets. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 10)
The total is sitting at seven runs, so the market isn’t anticipating a ton of scoring, either. Let me be clear: These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the postseason. Both pitchers are very good, and finding a home run spot in an elimination game isn’t easy.
That’s part of why I’m mixing a home run selection with two hits + runs + RBIs props rather than forcing multiple home run bets. Munetaka Murakami is my home run target, while Jo Adell and Miguel Vargas are my selections to record at least two combined hits, runs, and RBIs.
Before placing your bets, confirm starting lineups and the latest MLB odds. With everything on the line, neither manager is going to worry about saving an arm for tomorrow.
Home Run Prediction: Munetaka Murakami
I’m taking a small swing with Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run. This isn’t an easy matchup. Williams has outstanding strikeout stuff, and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Murakami struck out three or four times tonight.
That’s the risk we’re accepting with this hitter.
Murakami finished the regular season batting .207 with a 35.4% strikeout rate. There’s a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, and Williams isn’t the type of pitcher who makes that problem disappear.
But the raw power is undeniable. According to Baseball Savant, Murakami posted a 20.5% barrel rate, a 56.8% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 93.9 mph this season. Those are serious underlying power numbers. If the 26-year-old gets hold of one, he has more than enough power to do damage.
He finished his first MLB regular season with 35 home runs. It was awesome to see that power translate from overseas, even if the batting average left plenty to be desired. That’s essentially the argument here. We’re accepting a difficult matchup and a significant strikeout risk in exchange for a hitter who can absolutely mash a mistake.
I’m not expecting Williams to get knocked around. I’m just hoping Murakami gets one pitch he can handle and makes it count. With this much uncertainty, there’s no reason to make it anything more than a tiny bet.
Best Bet: Munetaka Murakami To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +355
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170,000 GC + 7 SC MLB Player Prop: Jo Adell 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
Next, I’m going with Jo Adell to record two or more combined hits, runs, and RBIs. Adell has been hot during this series, and this is largely a bet on recent form.
He enters Game 5 with four hits and six RBIs in the series, and he’s been a major part of Cleveland getting this series back to a deciding game.
I don’t need Adell to hit a home run for this selection to work. A hit and an RBI can get us there, as can a hit and a run scored. That’s the appeal of moving away from another home run bet in what could be a grind of a matchup.
Burke is a tough matchup, so I’m not pretending this is an easy spot. But Adell has given Cleveland productive at-bats when its season has been on the line. If he gets a left-hander later in the game, that would be a bonus. He slugged .599 with 14 home runs against southpaws during the regular season. We can’t count on that matchup happening, but it’s another reason I’m comfortable keeping him on this small card.
Best Bet: Jo Adell 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs DraftKings, +102
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses 170,000 GC + 7 SC MLB Top Pick: Miguel Vargas 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
I’m going back to Miguel Vargas for two or more combined hits, runs, and RBIs at +111. I’ve talked about Vargas before, and the appeal remains the same: I’m comfortable with his ability to produce against both right-handed and left-handed pitching.
That matters in a playoff game where the bullpen is going to be active. Against left-handed pitchers this season, Vargas slugged .535 with 12 home runs. Against right-handers, he hit 21 home runs and drove in 70 runs. Those splits give me some flexibility rather than tying the entire bet to one specific pitching matchup.
Again, Williams is a difficult pitcher to attack, but Vargas’ opportunity doesn’t necessarily end when Cleveland makes its first pitching change.
At +111, Vargas rounds out my MLB best bets today.
Best Bet: Miguel Vargas 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs DraftKings, +111
Before betting, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Keep the stakes small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy a winner-take-all Saturday night. Good luck!
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