MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 1
Wednesday delivered another wild day of playoff baseball, and now the Phillies and Braves are headed for a winner-take-all Game 3. This is the matchup where my best MLB home run props for Oct. 1 are coming from.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these MLB playoff picks and home run predictions. Let’s get into it!
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 1)
This isn't the kind of slate that creates a long list of no-brainer home run bets. The postseason already makes home run props difficult, and there aren't many matchups to choose from.
Before locking in your betting card, check confirmed starters, lineups, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+542)
Ronald Acuna Jr. at better than 5-1 is the first home run price that caught my attention for Thursday.
The Braves are at home in an elimination game, and Acuna's matchup history makes this number worth a small wager. Philadelphia could use a combination of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler on Thursday. The Phillies have not officially confirmed the plan, but all signs point to an all-hands-on-deck approach.
That means Acuna could see either pitcher.
Normally, I don't race to use batter-vs-pitcher data. The samples are often too small and noisy. However, Acuna’s history against Philadelphia’s likely options is extensive enough to matter a little.
He has four career home runs against Nola, with a .662 slugging percentage. Acuna has also taken Wheeler deep five times while posting a .576 slugging percentage against him.
That doesn't guarantee anything Thursday. Wheeler remains one of the sport’s best pitchers, and Nola can still put together an excellent start when his command is sharp. But Nola allowed 37 home runs this year, and home-run prevention has been a recurring problem throughout his career. He's also sporting a career-high fly-ball rate.
Acuna isn't some random long shot we are trying to talk ourselves into. He's one of the most talented hitters on the planet, and he entered the postseason with 20 home runs despite missing time with injuries.
If Nola starts, Atlanta’s leadoff hitter will be in about as good of a spot as we could ask for to go deep.
Best Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +542
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Kyle Schwarber (+261)
Sometimes the chalk is good.
Kyle Schwarber is not a creative pick. He's one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball; he just hit a massive home run in Wednesday’s comeback win, and he now faces an Atlanta pitching plan that may feature Grant Holmes for bulk innings.
Works for me.
Like the Phillies, Atlanta hasn't officially finalized their pitching plans as of late Wednesday night, but Holmes is expected to pitch in some capacity. Atlanta could use an opener to get through the top of Philadelphia’s order before turning the game over to Holmes, and the bullpen will obviously be a major part of the equation no matter what.
Still, Schwarber has the kind of power that can make an opener, bulk guy, or elite reliever look silly with one swing.
Holmes posted a solid 3.44 ERA this season, but the underlying profile has been far less convincing. He ranks in the 12th percentile in expected ERA, with an xERA north of 5.00. He also ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the third percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant.
Schwarber has 45 home runs this season. At some point, there is only so much more to say. He has elite strength, and he can outmuscle anybody.
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +261
MLB Playoff Home Run Betting
It's worth repeating: playoff home run betting is not the same as regular-season home run betting.
A manager can pull a starter after just a few at-bats if the matchup demands it, and the best bullpen arms are no longer reserved for the ninth inning. Every situation becomes high leverage.
That is why the prices look tempting. A player like Acuna at +542 is appealing because the odds acknowledge the difficulty. Schwarber at +261 is still plus money despite his 45-homer season because he may only get a few clean looks in a win-or-go-home game.
Keep the stakes modest. Confirm starting lineups, watch the official pitching announcements, and remember that both clubs have an incentive to use every quality arm they have.
The final result could be dictated as much by the bullpen as by the starting pitchers.
Where To Bet On MLB Props
Before betting Thursday’s home run props, compare prices at leading MLB betting sites. An extra 20 or 30 cents on a plus-money home run line matters, especially where there isn't much to choose from.
You can also review the best sports betting apps for live betting, alternate props, and available odds boosts.
The bottom line is simple: this is a slate for entertainment-sized bets. Every out matters, every pitcher has a short leash, and every at-bat is tougher than it was two weeks ago. But October baseball is too good not to have a little fun.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB home run props today!
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