MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Aug. 30

Sunday’s MLB home run props feature two left-handed sluggers in favorable matchups against vulnerable right-handed pitchers. I’m also targeting one of the league’s most electric young arms in the strikeout market. Let’s get into my favorite MLB home run props and player props for Sunday, Aug. 30!

MLB Home Run Props Today for Aug. 30

We’ll head north of the border first, where the Seattle Mariners take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Dominic Canzone to hit a home run at +379 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my favorite long-shot prop of the day.

Max Scherzer gets the ball for Toronto, and the future Hall of Famer has simply not been the same pitcher. Scherzer owns an ERA north of 7.00 this season, and while his 4.81 expected ERA suggests he has been a bit unlucky, that mark is still nowhere close to the dominant version of Mad Max we have seen in years past.

The underlying contact numbers are concerning. Scherzer ranks in just the 20th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and he has struggled to keep the ball on the ground. That has been a recurring issue for him, too. Last season, he ranked in just the second percentile in both ground-ball rate and barrel rate allowed.

Canzone is enjoying a breakout season for Seattle. The left-handed slugger owns a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching and has consistently produced loud contact. Any time Mariners hitters leave T-Mobile Park, it is a positive, and this matchup gives Canzone a much better environment to show off his pull-side power.

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Best Bet: Dominic Canzone To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +379

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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Juan Soto

Next, we’ll head to Queens, where the New York Mets host the Houston Astros. Juan Soto to hit a home run at +289 on DraftKings is another MLB home run prop I’m backing Sunday.

Soto is just back from the injured list, so there is always some concern about rust. But this is a generational hitter who has still managed to launch 21 home runs despite missing more than a month of action.

He gets a premium matchup against Houston right-hander Ethan Pecko. In a small sample this season, Pecko has allowed an expected ISO north of .300. That is an extremely high number and speaks to the quality of contact opponents have generated against him.

Soto owns a .344 expected ISO vs. RHP this season and continues to post elite advanced metrics across the board. He does not need many chances to change a game, especially against a pitcher struggling to miss barrels.

Weather could be something to monitor in New York, with rain in the forecast. However, the current outlook includes wind blowing out toward the outfield around 10 mph.

Best Bet: Juan Soto To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +289

MLB Strikeout Props Today: Chase Burns

Now, for one more MLB player prop today. I’m taking Chase Burns over 5.5 strikeouts at -140 as the Cincinnati Reds take on the Chicago Cubs.

Any time Burns has a reasonable 5.5 or 6.5 strikeout line, I am interested. The young right-hander has been a top-three pitcher in baseball this season, and his strikeout profile is as real as it gets.

Burns owns a 28% strikeout rate while ranking in the 87th percentile in chase rate and the 90th percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. The Cubs have a strong offense and several hitters capable of making contact, but Burns has the arsenal to generate swings and misses against any lineup.

Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140

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