MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Aug. 27
Thursday’s MLB slate is a small one, and there are some pretty solid arms taking the mound. That makes finding home run props a little tougher than usual, but we’ve still got two hitters in Washington worth targeting. I’ve also got a strikeout under I like in a tough matchup for an aging ace. Let’s dive into my best MLB picks for Aug. 27!
MLB Home Run Props Today for Aug. 27
Mickey Moniak to hit a home run on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB home run pick today. The Colorado Rockies visit the Washington Nationals for an afternoon game, and Moniak gets a juicy matchup with right-hander Jake Irvin.
Another year, another season of Irvin getting hit hard. He owns a 5.82 ERA, and even though the surface-level lefty splits do not look catastrophic, there is plenty to attack. Irvin has allowed a .186 ISO to left-handed hitters, but his expected ISO sits all the way up at .234. He has gotten a little lucky against lefty power.
It was just last season that Irvin surrendered a whopping 26 home runs to lefties, allowing a .554 slugging percentage in the split while giving up 38 homers overall. That is a pretty ugly history against hitters from this side of the plate.
Moniak is enjoying another strong season for Colorado. The former top prospect has come into his own as a power bat, and he has 21 home runs this year. Eighteen of those have come against right-handed pitching, along with a .566 slugging percentage and a .295 ISO.
This is a great matchup for Moniak to keep doing damage against righties. I like him to go deep early in the afternoon.
Best Bet: Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +321
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES MLB Home Run Predictions: Abimelec Ortiz
We’re staying right here in the nation’s capital for my next MLB home run pick. Abimelec Ortiz to hit a home run on DraftKings is a bet I’m willing to make against Rockies right-hander Gabriel Hughes.
Ortiz has shown real power throughout the minor leagues, and the early Major League sample has been encouraging. It is obviously a very small sample size, but his bat speed has been through the roof, and his expected slugging percentage has been excellent in his quick cup of coffee.
Hughes carries a 6.54 ERA into this start, and I’m expecting some fireworks in Washington. There are not many great home run spots on this small slate, so I’m happy to attack this game twice.
Before locking in any home run pick, it is always worth checking multiple sports betting apps for the best price.
Best Bet: Abimelec Ortiz to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +458
MLB Player Props Today: Gerrit Cole
For my MLB strikeout prop today, I’m taking Gerrit Cole under his strikeout total as the New York Yankees host the Houston Astros.
Houston has been clicking at the plate since the beginning of July, but this is also more about Cole’s stuff. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 77th percentile in strikeout rate, but just the 33rd percentile in chase rate and the 25th percentile in whiff rate. That is a massive disconnect. His strikeout production has been better than the underlying bat-missing profile suggests, and I expect those numbers to balance out eventually.
Cole is still a very good pitcher, but he is not the same dominant strikeout monster he was at his peak. Against a disciplined Houston lineup, I’m willing to fade him.
Best Bet: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -103
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
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